Let me premise this by saying I dont like either Mccain or Osama. With that being said, Ive noticed a trend. The polls how Osama leading and it looks like he's guaranteed victory by those same polls. The media is in their glory and everyone is jumping on their bandwagon. Or are they? My buddy bet me $500 that Osama yard signs would be more abundant than Mccain signs. So we went for a joyride which turned into 6 hours and over a tank of gas. The result from driving from Keene, to Peterborough, to Hillsborough, to Manchester, to Concord and everywhere in between. 345 Mccain signs, and 95 Osama signs. We did not include Osama/Mccain signs on the highway/byway, only those in front of actual homes. FYI from Hillsborough to Manchester not 1 and I mean not 1 Osama sign anywhere to be seen on the highways, but plenty of Mccain signs. Take the ride yourself. Finally my question is what if the pollsters are misleading everyone to make it seem like Osama has it in the bag. Last I checked NH was 54% to 44% Osama in the lead. So Mccain actually wins and Osama loses, the media cries conspiracy and we have ourselves a race war. We know people will riot whether he wins or loses. But if he loses, the hinges fall off, martial law is declared, and oh boy.. Any thoughts? Im $500 ahead, any takers?
Um....no. :)
FYI, Obama signs out-number McCain signs by a 4-1 margin (my estimate) on the far more densely-populated Seacoast.
Quote from: margomaps on October 21, 2008, 10:29 PM NHFT
FYI, Obama signs out-number McCain signs by a 4-1 margin (my estimate) on the far more densely-populated Seacoast.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the most densely populated area was Manchester and then probably Nashua. Manchester is the largest city by population.
I'm not posing an opinion on the controversy or the predictions, but I will say that the LA Times was notorious for always being 5% off on polls, favoring the liberal direction. I remember pegging it in the Schwarzenegger election. A friend mentioned the current poll and was getting some unfounded optimism for Davis and I said "It'll be 5% off" and I was exactly right. It was never mentioned amongst my liberal friends again. :) Apparently it is common knowledge to pollsters that polls lean liberal by a certain margin, probably close to that but might vary a little for region, and the good polling places adjust their predictions accordingly. It seems to do with liberals who say they're going to vote but then don't carry through. Conservatives vote at a much higher percentage than liberals. Some liberal media outlets just don't adjust their polls for this historical trend and they're not technically lying.
So that's the trend for the LA Times. I'm not sure where your polls are coming from, but it could be interesting to check the source and then compare the actual results and see if the trend holds up.
My take on the polling is that the pollsters are manipulating the numbers to make it look more like a horse race. Obama is going to win, possibly by greater margins than Reagan over Mondale. If they allow the polling to indicate reality, then they won't be able to sell as many polls and they won't be as "exciting".
Quote from: dalebert on October 22, 2008, 07:47 AM NHFT
Quote from: margomaps on October 21, 2008, 10:29 PM NHFT
FYI, Obama signs out-number McCain signs by a 4-1 margin (my estimate) on the far more densely-populated Seacoast.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the most densely populated area was Manchester and then probably Nashua. Manchester is the largest city by population.
Ok, if you insist. :)
NH Population density map (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:New_Hampshire_population_map.png)
Since population density is a function of population
and area, it is certainly true that the Seacoast region has a higher population density than the area formed when driving "from Keene, to Peterborough, to Hillsborough, to Manchester, to Concord and everywhere in between", as Romak said. Most of that area has extremely low population density. Yes, Manchester is the largest city in NH, and he also included the relatively population-dense Concord and Keene in his area. But "everywhere inbetween" includes large swaths of sparsely populated rural areas -- undoubtedly bastions of McCain support.
The area southwest of the Seacoast -- the southern Merrimack valley, including Nashua -- is more densely populated than the Seacoast.
In any event, I was merely responding to Romak's assertion about McCain's apparent level of support relative to Obama's. If signage is any indication of support, then Obama has more support than McCain in the Seacoast region, at least from what
I've seen driving around this area.
If
polling numbers are any indication of support, then Obama has a clear lead in NH. Are polls perfect? No. Is it likely that there's a vast conspiracy amongst a dozen or more polling companies and organizations (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_mccain_vs_obama-195.html#polls) to inflate Obama's numbers? No (sorry Ron ;D ).
I'm still writing in Ron Paul
I'm writing in Ron Paul as well. Amazing how right hes been about everything. Polls are obviously skewed. The leaders of all polling including Rasmussen, Gallup, Real Clear, Politico, etc all lean to the left considerably. Zogby is sort of impartial but by no means fair. Calling 1000 people nationwide and figuring thats a good estimate of where America stands is ridiculous. All I was saying is that I believe Mccain will win and by acting like Osama is ahead for the past month of so people will revolt thinking he got a raw deal when all along the polls were off. I read a pretty interesting article about how when a good percentage of white people go to the polls after saying they would vote for Osama they will change their minds when in the privacy of the voting booth. This article estimates that Osama will lose anywhere from 5-10% of the vote due to this. Just food for thought. Either way in my humble opinion things are going to go south very fast whether he wins or loses. Funny thing about our drive the majority of Osama signs that were a huge part of that number were in Peterborough. Everywhere else including Manchester and even Concord to a degree were very pro Mccain. Someone puts a sign in their lawn its a very good indication as to who they will vote for. Guess we'll see what happens. I'm just glad I live in the country and not in the city. Last little interesting tidbit we saw about 10 signs with a picture of Osama and underneath it was written racist prick. Good for a chuckle.
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/police-prepare-for-unrest-2008-10-21.html
Just came across this. Kind of fits.
Just curious.
Do you think it contributes at all - in some small way - to the level of tension in this country to refer to Obama as "Osama" in your post?
I call it like I see it. He is in bed with peope who despise Jews, Whites, and America in general. Isnt that how the boogyman Osama feels?
Quote from: Romak on October 22, 2008, 11:29 AM NHFTPolls are obviously skewed.
Yeah, I heard the same thing about Ron Paul prior to the primary in NH. RP supporters were whining about how the polls were significantly undercounting his support because cellphones weren't included, and cellphone users were likely to be younger and therefore more likely to support Ron Paul. Guess what? Ron Paul did almost exactly as the polls predicted here in NH. No big conspiracy!
QuoteThe leaders of all polling including Rasmussen, Gallup, Real Clear, Politico, etc all lean to the left considerably.
Oh really? Can you cite evidence to support this bold assertion?
QuoteZogby is sort of impartial but by no means fair.
Oh really? Can you cite evidence to support this bold assertion?
QuoteCalling 1000 people nationwide and figuring thats a good estimate of where America stands is ridiculous.
Actually, it's not ridiculous. It's not perfect, to be sure. But it's a remarkably good indicator. When you understand even the basics of statistical sampling, you will likely stop viewing it as some voodoo conspiracy.
QuoteI read a pretty interesting article about how when a good percentage of white people go to the polls after saying they would vote for Osama they will change their minds when in the privacy of the voting booth. This article estimates that Osama will lose anywhere from 5-10% of the vote due to this. Just food for thought.
That's a good point. One of the downsides of relying on statistical sampling for opinion polls is the reliability of the people being polled. Certainly they can lie, or just change their minds between the opinion poll and election day. That's one of the reasons I said this type of sampling isn't perfect. It's pretty darn good though, and errors in polling are not evidence of some vast polling company/media conspiracy.
QuoteEither way in my humble opinion things are going to go south very fast whether he wins or loses.
Well we can agree on something at least. :) Although I don't necessarily expect things to go south faster than they've already been going recently.
Quote from: Romak on October 22, 2008, 12:42 PM NHFT
I call it like I see it. He is in bed with peope who despise Jews, Whites, and America in general. Isnt that how the boogyman Osama feels?
What are you talking about?
There are people right here in this forum who despise America (nationalism).
I used to participate in Zogby polls. They seemed to be all political and varied only a little. From time to time I would see the result of another Zogby poll that I would like to have been involved in. I inquired about why I was not invited to join in these and got no response. I think when polls come out the way they want, Zogby insures they stay that way.
Quote from: Lloyd Danforth on October 23, 2008, 06:28 AM NHFT
I used to participate in Zogby polls. They seemed to be all political and varied only a little. From time to time I would see the result of another Zogby poll that I would like to have been involved in. I inquired about why I was not invited to join in these and got no response. I think when polls come out the way they want, Zogby insures they stay that way.
Actually, Zogby
is known somewhat for using suspect polling techniques. One such technique would be to allow someone to seek out and join a poll he's interested in. Self-selection completely defeats the one good, scientific thing opinion polls have going for them: random sampling.
I can't wait until Obama doesn't come up with a valid birth certificate, as for the riots? Where do I sign? Riots sound like a LOT of fun. :o ;D If the inner city Obama folk try to come to Hookset with violence in mind and burning down houses ect. ect... they will be met with angry neighbors with dogs and clubs. We have already discussed this very scenario in our neighborhood and we are ready for a nice peacefull night on election night.
I'm going to light a candle on election night at 9 PM to signify the nightmare that we will be in and for God to show his mercy on us, that is if I'm not at a party at the neighbors.....
The stupidity in this thread is mind blowing.
Quote from: AnarchoMartyr on October 23, 2008, 09:46 AM NHFT
The stupidity in this thread is mind blowing.
WHAT?!! I challenge you to show me
at least FIFTEEN examples of stupidity in this thread. ;D
QuoteI challenge you to show me at least FIFTEEN examples of stupidity in this thread
Does stupidity density count...
I don't trust those polls. They only matter if people answering have a reason to vote. I know that a LOT of the moderates feel less scared by McCain than they do with Obama. I've got SOCIALIST (actual, real European Socialists) who say they're afraid of Obama.
I think John McCain, or more specifically, Sarah Palin's joviality, may attract a lot of the moderate voters who simply haven't come to terms with that fact.
Quote from: Kevin Dean on October 23, 2008, 04:44 PM NHFT
QuoteI challenge you to show me at least FIFTEEN examples of stupidity in this thread
Does stupidity density count...
Oh, it counts alright. And it takes a heavy toll. :D
QuoteI don't trust those polls. They only matter if people answering have a reason to vote.
Yeah, there are plenty of reasons to explain why opinion polls are not -- and cannot -- be a perfect predictor of human behavior on election day. It's perfectly reasonable to point out flaws in the polling methodology, the randomness of the sample, the quality of the responses, etc. My eyelid only starts to twitch when the conversation veers into this absurd notion that the polling agencies are involved in some sort of conspiracy to make the results come out a certain way. :o
QuoteI know that a LOT of the moderates feel less scared by McCain than they do with Obama. I've got SOCIALIST (actual, real European Socialists) who say they're afraid of Obama.
I know of a lot of neocons from the Bush administration who are voting for Obama -- they keep crawling out of the woodwork lately! :D My point is, there's nothing invalid about anecdotal accounts, but one must be careful about making generalizations from them. Whereas, the entire point of statistical sampling is to make generalizations. The science is correct; the application of the science, and the underlying assumptions about human behavior do have some errors built in unfortunately.
Quote from: grasshopper on October 23, 2008, 09:07 AM NHFT
I can't wait until Obama doesn't come up with a valid birth certificate, as for the riots? Where do I sign? Riots sound like a LOT of fun. :o ;D If the inner city Obama folk try to come to Hookset with violence in mind and burning down houses ect. ect... they will be met with angry neighbors with dogs and clubs. We have already discussed this very scenario in our neighborhood and we are ready for a nice peacefull night on election night.
I'm going to light a candle on election night at 9 PM to signify the nightmare that we will be in and for God to show his mercy on us, that is if I'm not at a party at the neighbors.....
Yeah I heard Hookset will be at the top of the list.
Do you realize how big of a jackass you sound like?
Quote from: Pat K on October 24, 2008, 12:09 AM NHFT
Quote from: grasshopper on October 23, 2008, 09:07 AM NHFT
I can't wait until Obama doesn't come up with a valid birth certificate, as for the riots? Where do I sign? Riots sound like a LOT of fun. :o ;D If the inner city Obama folk try to come to Hookset with violence in mind and burning down houses ect. ect... they will be met with angry neighbors with dogs and clubs. We have already discussed this very scenario in our neighborhood and we are ready for a nice peacefull night on election night.
I'm going to light a candle on election night at 9 PM to signify the nightmare that we will be in and for God to show his mercy on us, that is if I'm not at a party at the neighbors.....
Yeah I heard Hookset will be at the top of the list.
Do you realize how big of a jackass you sound like?
Hey you can't talk to George Wallace like that! ;D
Yeah! He'll jump out of his wheelchair and 'Pop' you one!
What are you talking about?
There are people right here in this forum who despise America (nationalism).
[/quote]
The only thing I despise is how lazy and ignorant Americans have become. Its unfortunate that people in my age bracket(25-34) dint have a clue never mind an interest in politics and how it effects them. Or should I say the majority don't there are a few out there. Polls are biased to a great degree. If I spent a weekend driving around and counted one thousand signs in front of a thousand homes I think that would be as accurate as calling one thousand random people. I dont trust who they pick to call, I don't think its random by any means, I don't trust the people taking these polls to be honest, I most definitely don't trust the people calling to check off the proper box as to who the person said they would vote for, and in the end I don't trust the people who own these polling places. The sheeple out there are very influenced by popular opinion and if they see a bunch of polls saying Obama is going to win in a landslide they will do one of two things, jump on the bandwagon just to be cool or the ones who would've voted for Mccain may just stay home because its not worth voting at that point. Polls are very dangerous in my humble opinion. In the end its all about money. Grasshopper I have to agree on this one you don't sound a bit nuts with that post. Who in the world is going to target Hooksett to riot never mind NH in general.
QuoteI know of a lot of neocons from the Bush administration who are voting for Obama -- they keep crawling out of the woodwork lately!
Neo-cons are the "Cuckoo birds" of political factions - they will lay their egg in any nest (political party) that they want to achieve their empire building/make the world safe for capitalism making goals.
Neo-cons started out as Trotskyites and then eventually migrated into the anti-communist, hawkish wing of the Democratic Party (Sen. Scoop Jackson) and then migrated (cuckoos) over to the Republican Party via Reagan. Paul Wolfowitz, Elliot Abrahms, Richard Perle, and Doug Feith all worked for Scoop Jackson as neo-cons.
Quote
The only thing I despise is how lazy and ignorant Americans have become. Its unfortunate that people in my age bracket(25-34) dint have a clue never mind an interest in politics and how it effects them. Or should I say the majority don't there are a few out there. Polls are biased to a great degree. If I spent a weekend driving around and counted one thousand signs in front of a thousand homes I think that would be as accurate as calling one thousand random people. I dont trust who they pick to call, I don't think its random by any means, I don't trust the people taking these polls to be honest, I most definitely don't trust the people calling to check off the proper box as to who the person said they would vote for, and in the end I don't trust the people who own these polling places. The sheeple out there are very influenced by popular opinion and if they see a bunch of polls saying Obama is going to win in a landslide they will do one of two things, jump on the bandwagon just to be cool or the ones who would've voted for Mccain may just stay home because its not worth voting at that point. Polls are very dangerous in my humble opinion. In the end its all about money. Grasshopper I have to agree on this one you don't sound a bit nuts with that post. Who in the world is going to target Hooksett to riot never mind NH in general.
George Bush destroyed the Republican Party...John McCain had contemplated seriously switching to the Democratic Party after his defeat in 2000.
Barack Obama is no ideologue and will govern as a centrist...the difference between their policy as they govern would be negligible.
That's my point, I'm kidding, there are no roving bans of anybody burning houses. I was being morbidly sarcastic. Jeeeez.
Come on my friends, I couldn't see a time in any future "I'm in" that there are roving bans of crimminals like in Somalia.
I do see kids doing the normal things though, drinking carrousing and having sex and throwing beer cans out of the cars.
I'm concerned why there are army dudes ready to go into the big cities though.
I'm going to stay local on election night, any parties?
Hope you are all ready. Mccain is going to win on so called Independants going towards him in the last days. Osama will cry foul and the games will begin.
Quote from: Romak on November 02, 2008, 01:38 PM NHFT
Hope you are all ready. Mccain is going to win on so called Independants going towards him in the last days. Osama will cry foul and the games will begin.
If McCain wins (which is doubtful), Obama under no uncertain terms will cry foul just as Gore did not continue to take the 2000 election results to the streets.
QuoteIts unfortunate that people in my age bracket(25-34) dint have a clue never mind an interest in politics and how it effects them.
"By the year 2000, they will have taught an entire generation to be too stupid to vote."
-Frank Zappa, 1976
Quote from: erisian on November 02, 2008, 03:25 PM NHFT
QuoteIts unfortunate that people in my age bracket(25-34) dint have a clue never mind an interest in politics and how it effects them.
"By the year 2000, they will have taught an entire generation to be too stupid to vote. " -Frank Zappa, 1976
Maybe it is because most people intuitively understand that in our form of governance the political pendulum only swings between a slightly right of center coalition (Republicans) and a slightly left of center coalition (Democrats).