Chart Shows Recession ahead

[Lex]

I'm not an expert in chart reading but I would like to share some observation. Below is a graph compiled by the New York Times for the article Double Warning That a Recession May Be on the Way:



Notice how the Yield Spread goes down first below the bolded 'safety line' then a few months after the employment line follows and bam we have a recession, this pattern has occured twice. There aren't any false positives in the chart either, the employment did go below the safety line a few times but not together with the yield spread.

But now we have something different, both the Yield Spread AND the Employment charts are going down at the same time (unlike the previous two recessions where the employment followed the yield). Also, note that both have passed the magical 'safety line' which means that if the pattern of previous holds true we are guaranteed to have a recession now but the fact that the two graphs are going down together is puzzling.

Any thoughts on these two charts?

[penguins4me]

Those "recessions" seem awful short.

Do I think the US creditors are going to put up with the US devaluing its currency by ~30% and possibly more? Not indefinitely, to be sure. When that happens, the dollar becomes totally worthless and whatever name the economists use for a situation like that, it sure won't be pretty.

I don't believe the worst thing ahead of the US is a six-month "recession".