When is the "Shire Silver" Going to Come Out?

[ancapagency]

I still maintain that folks are spending excessive amounts of thought on the ways to spot counterfeit silver.  The fact is, in the small denominations (or weights, if you prefer) the Shire Silver pieces aren't going to be economically counterfeitable in a manner that would still produce the easily recognizable bell-tone when dropped on a hard surface.  Thus, any lesser metal used, or significant amount of lesser metal alloyed with silver to reduce the silver content would effect the sound in a noticeable fashion.  Additionally, any efforts at "clipping" any worthwhile amount of silver would noticeably change the size and weight of the pieces.  Therefore, any significant counterfeiting or debasing operation would actually be extremely expensive, and not at all cost effective--it'd cost more than you'd get from the clipping or counterfeiting.

At most, all you'd need to find counterfeits or clipped pieces is one known good Shire Silver piece to compare size and weight, and bounce the suspect piece on a hard surface. 

Now, as there are some ideas running around for the next stages of the currency--e.g. the gold pieces, the wire-impregnated cards, etc., there may be some issues with those--but I submit that current thought needs to be spent on getting the initial minting done--not on the long-term and future products. 

[Luke S]

I still maintain that folks are spending excessive amounts of thought on the ways to spot counterfeit silver. 

I don't. I think the concern about diluted and/or counterfeit silver is an extremely valid concern, and I'm both glad and impressed that so many people are bringing it up. A big part of the reason why the Roman Empire fell was because they used gold as a currency, and there were people who clandestinely made gold coins with a diluted percentage of gold in them, causing a lot of inflation.

When stuff like Shire Silver replaces the FRN's throughout much of America, and I truly believe that one day it will, a major issue is going to be how are we going to keep what happened to the Roman Empire regarding this issue from happening to us.

[ancapagency]

I don't. I think the concern about diluted and/or counterfeit silver is an extremely valid concern, and I'm both glad and impressed that so many people are bringing it up. A big part of the reason why the Roman Empire fell was because they used gold as a currency, and there were people who clandestinely made gold coins with a diluted percentage of gold in them, causing a lot of inflation.

Please read my entire post before replying.

I fully understand that counterfeiting is a problem that will eventually have to be dealt with--see the case in which I mentioned that in the same post.  The fact is that it IS NOT a problem in the present and near future Shire Silver case, and expending vast amounts of time and thought and breath and electrons discussing it at this point merely pushes the day Shire Silver is produced, released, and circulated off further.  It is better to get out a good and useful product now, than to spend forever working to develop a theoretical perfect product many years from now (or never).

In order to get anything done, as dissatisfying as it may be, you must be willing to accept a certain amount of imperfection in the short-term.

[K. Darien Freeheart]

I still maintain that folks are spending excessive amounts of thought on the ways to spot counterfeit silver.

I'm not focusing on counterfeiting per se. I ask because I'm not used to circulation silver or gold and I'd like to know more about how to protect myself as a buyer and seller. I also think that at least addressing these things from an informative perspective (not so much as a design of SS perspective) is important to educating people about their money. I have these questions and I'm already "on board" so to speak, I'm sure they'll arise from someone new.

The fact is, in the small denominations (or weights, if you prefer) the Shire Silver pieces aren't going to be economically counterfeitable in a manner that would still produce the easily recognizable bell-tone when dropped on a hard surface.

This is kind of what I mean - this is something that you as an exchanger of silver understands but someone who's entire dealings with "money" are paper notes. There's always a lot of information that we take for granted (I do it ALL the time when discussing computers with other people) that may be of importance to others.

I don't. I think the concern about diluted and/or counterfeit silver is an extremely valid concern

I fully understand that counterfeiting is a problem that will eventually have to be dealt with

I'm not concerned with being passed counterfeit silver or gold. I trust that the VAST majority of people are going to do business with me honestly and in the rare cases they don't I have protections against them. What I am more concerned about, if the distinction shall be made, is not understanding my currency. I'm more concerned that "I don't know if this is fake" than I am about actually being passed something that's fake. I'm asking for answers, not solutions, if that makes sense. As far as I understand it, the goal of SS is to introduce silver as barter medium AND educate, which is why I think SS should include this kind of information.

In order to get anything done, as dissatisfying as it may be, you must be willing to accept a certain amount of imperfection in the short-term.

I agree in one aspect and have to disagree in another. I'm a member of MANY Free Software projects. A consistent thing I've seen is "Get a working program and then document it". This works well as a goal decision, until you take a step back and understand that computer programs (like economies) are ALWAYS shifting to deal with new things. There is no such thing as a "working program" and because of that, there's always crappy documentation. The cause of this is simple - people who WRITE programs understand how to use them. People who use them know how to answer their own questions about the software and don't need documentation. The difference between those projects and THIS one, frankly, is that computer programs aren't ALWAYS written to be popular but the use of silver becomes more valuable the more popular it is. Universal acceptance is a VERY strong value for a currency and without answering the questions that people (like myself, honestly) have you reduce the chances that they'll accept it and use it daily thus reducing the value of it.

That is my only point and counterfeiting was only one aspect of that. I didn't mean to hone in on counterfeiting specifically.

[PattyLee loves dogs]

A big part of the reason why the Roman Empire fell was because they used gold as a currency, and there were people who clandestinely made gold coins with a diluted percentage of gold in them, causing a lot of inflation.

Are you sure? There was a big inflation under Diocletian using silver-wash copper coins, but everybody knew they were of little value... they were just forced to take them.

Gold is very hard to counterfeit economically... pretty much impossible now that we have scales (you can use uranium and lead, but that's not cheap  ). It is theoretically possible to counterfeit silver by using tungsten and lead, but the profit is small, the required scale huge, and it's still pretty easy to discover with electronics (eddy currents).

[Beth221]

more power to someone that is going to take the time, MONEY, silver, and equipment to crank out a shire coin!

[mackler]

Or if the market demands it, 1/4 oz copper can be used as pocket change.

There are these things called silver dimes... for that matter, there's still all the silver coins we need. Why make new ones when the coin shops are full of old?

Plus they're perfect for doing business with the fourteen-fingered extra-terrestrials.

[ancapagency]

...I ask because I'm not used to circulation silver or gold and I'd like to know more about how to protect myself as a buyer and seller...

This:

...At most, all you'd need to find counterfeits or clipped pieces is one known good Shire Silver piece to compare size and weight, and bounce the suspect piece on a hard surface... 

[Ron Helwig]

I remember seeing this tool for checking certain coins, it uses the weight and volume tests. If I remember correctly, it has a slot cut into it which you slide the coin through and a depression in which you place the coin flat. There's a ridge on the bottom side that allows the device to act as a crude scale when placed on a flat surface. Apparently one side is counter weighted so that when the specific coin is placed in the depression on the other side the device will balance out.

Its called the "Fisch". More discussion here: http://shiresilver.org/forum/testing_systems
It doesn't balance, but tips over when the coin weighs enough.

It works for gold, but not silver; because everything that's more dense than gold is more expensive than gold, but that doesn't hold true for silver.

[Luke S]

Hey guys, I have more questions about Shire Silver.

Is it theoretically possible for somebody who wasn't supposed to be one of the Shire Silver minters to start minting Shire Silver pieces and going to stores that accepted Shire Silver and using them?

Is it theoretically possible for people in other states besides New Hampshire to get ahold of Shire Silver pieces and start using Shire Silver amongst themselves in those states as well?

Would you guys approve of it if that happened? Or disapprove of it?

What about that guy who suggested that copper rounds be used to supplement Shire Silver if the market demands it? What ever became of that suggestion?

[K. Darien Freeheart]

Is it theoretically possible for somebody who wasn't supposed to be one of the Shire Silver minters to start minting Shire Silver pieces and going to stores that accepted Shire Silver and using them?

Technically, no. The aim of Shire Silver is to be decentralized and allow ANYONE to do it if they wish. It's "open source" currency. If you're not familiar with open source, basically it's a software development system designed to take the burden off of a single producer and allow anyone who's interested in the process to tak the code, tweak it to their desire and share those changes with other. The reason it's technically not possible for someone "who's not supposed to" mint Shire Silver is because it's designed to allow everyone to mint it.

Is it theoretically possible for people in other states besides New Hampshire to get ahold of Shire Silver pieces and start using Shire Silver amongst themselves in those states as well?

Money can be spent anywhere there is demand for it. If you find an actual economy willing to trade with silver, more power to you.

Would you guys approve of it if that happened? Or disapprove of it?

The idea is to empower people do do both of those things.

What about that guy who suggested that copper rounds be used to supplement Shire Silver if the market demands it?

I don't think that's the aim if SS but there's no reason it couldn't happen. The simple truth is copper is not really all that valuable and taking the time to mint pieces of it wouldn't really pay off in the long run since a small silver piece can cover most exchanges. With the fact that silver is such a hedge against inflation the small "change" could be written off as exchange premium or "discount" considering that the same piece over time will have more purchasing power over the USD.

In short, if the market demands it, it'll happen. But for the time being, since silver use is essentially confined to altermarkets transactions aren't typically so exact to require "change" in other metals. You can add FRN's into the exchange to make up the loss if need be. Long term, there will be systems in place (banks) that would issue certificated or debit cards that could handle fractional ounce transactions so that you could be more specific with an impersonal seller (like paying the phone bill) but none of that is the current aim of SS.

[Ron Helwig]

Is it theoretically possible for somebody who wasn't supposed to be one of the Shire Silver minters to start minting Shire Silver pieces and going to stores that accepted Shire Silver and using them?

Technically, no. The aim of Shire Silver is to be decentralized and allow ANYONE to do it if they wish. It's "open source" currency. If you're not familiar with open source, basically it's a software development system designed to take the burden off of a single producer and allow anyone who's interested in the process to tak the code, tweak it to their desire and share those changes with other. The reason it's technically not possible for someone "who's not supposed to" mint Shire Silver is because it's designed to allow everyone to mint it.

Is it theoretically possible for people in other states besides New Hampshire to get ahold of Shire Silver pieces and start using Shire Silver amongst themselves in those states as well?

Money can be spent anywhere there is demand for it. If you find an actual economy willing to trade with silver, more power to you.

Would you guys approve of it if that happened? Or disapprove of it?

The idea is to empower people do do both of those things.

What about that guy who suggested that copper rounds be used to supplement Shire Silver if the market demands it?

I don't think that's the aim if SS but there's no reason it couldn't happen. The simple truth is copper is not really all that valuable and taking the time to mint pieces of it wouldn't really pay off in the long run since a small silver piece can cover most exchanges. With the fact that silver is such a hedge against inflation the small "change" could be written off as exchange premium or "discount" considering that the same piece over time will have more purchasing power over the USD.

In short, if the market demands it, it'll happen. But for the time being, since silver use is essentially confined to altermarkets transactions aren't typically so exact to require "change" in other metals. You can add FRN's into the exchange to make up the loss if need be. Long term, there will be systems in place (banks) that would issue certificated or debit cards that could handle fractional ounce transactions so that you could be more specific with an impersonal seller (like paying the phone bill) but none of that is the current aim of SS.

Good answers!

BTW, I have been thinking about seeing if I can make a 10 gram copper piece, but I'm not sure its worth it. 10 grams is about 1/3rd of an ounce, so it would be a good size.

Another aspect of Shire Silver is to help market the use of silver as money, as well as trying to make it easier. I intend for the shiresilver.com website to list merchants who accept silver, and at what terms (face, spot, spot plus x%, 30DMA, 30DMA plus x%, etc). I personally like the 30DMA idea - it reduces fluctuations while allowing it to change.

[mackler]

30DMA?

[Pat McCotter]

30 day moving average. Take the average price of silver over the last 30 days, moving each day to the last 30 days.

[K. Darien Freeheart]

30 DMA (from a quick google search) is 30 day moving average. I'm assuming it calculated based on spot prices over a 30 day period and then averages them.

The benefits is that you'd have a month-long period of consistent prices. I'm not sure I really like that idea, but I suppose it's not signifigantly worse than any other method.

My personal opinion is a bit more "flexible". I'm strongly considering a business idea that will allow me to conduct daily, common business and accept silver. I've been playing with the idea of using spot prices (at last close of market) as the baseline for transaction and then give a reasonable discount for conducting the transaction in silver. It would give incentive for using the silver over FRN but it would also bring signifigantly more silver my way in the early stages before the demand for FRN drops. It hedges against devaluation and inflation unless my plan is offbase.

I expect in the beginning it would be infrequent enough that the customers wouldn't mind the lack of fixed-prices but over time I'd probably move to simple spot... Man I need rest.