NASA sucks at math!

[Puke]

Via Gizmodo

NASA has been forced to check its math after a 13-year-old German boy wrote to tell them their calculations for the probability of an asteroid hitting earth were incorrect. Agency bosses had predicted a one-in-45,000 chance of an interstellar object bringing an end to life as we know it; that was until teen Nico Marquardt told them that the figure was closer to one in 450.

The asteroid in question is the Apophosis. If it runs into one or more of the earth's 40,000 satellites as its path brings it closest to our planet on April 13, 2029, the collision could be enough to alter its trajectory and send a 200-billion-ton ball of iron and iridium our way in 2036. The impact would be followed by tsunamis that would destroy coastal and inland areas around the Atlantic Ocean. To top this disaster-movie situation off, a thick layer of dust would blanket the Earth.

So how did NASA get it wrong? Perhaps they did not take into account the possibility of that trajectory-changing first collision—either that or they forgot to carry a digit somewhere, because 450 and 45,000 do look vaguely similar. I am guessing that young Nico's project, "Apophis — The Killer Astroid" won the regional science competition that it was entered into. [Yahoo! News]

[Landon Jeffery]

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/

[TresJay]

I'm on a Nasa mailing list, and this came through today.

From:NASA News <hqnews@mediaservices.nasa.gov>
To:NASA News <hqnews@mediaservices.nasa.gov>
Date: Wed 16 Apr 2008 17:00:00 EDT
Subject:NASA Statement on Student Asteroid Calculations

April 16, 2008

Dwayne Brown
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-1726
dwayne.c.brown@nasa.gov

RELEASE: 08-103

NASA STATEMENT ON STUDENT ASTEROID CALCULATIONS

WASHINGTON -- The Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet
Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has not changed its
current estimates for the very low probability (1 in 45,000) of an
Earth impact by the asteroid Apophis in 2036.

Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth
object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence
with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact
probability is far higher than the current estimate.

This student's conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a
collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid's close
approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the
main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a
collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote.

Therefore, consideration of this satellite collision scenario does not
affect the current impact probability estimate for Apophis, which
remains at 1 in 45,000.


-end-

[PattyLee loves dogs]

NASA likes to talk about near-Earth asteroids in the hopes of justifying the trillion dollars or so that they've wasted over the years, but no one actually looked for dangerous asteroids until quite recently. In fact until the mid 1970s an asteroid hit would have triggered WWIII... the NORAD geniuses had completely forgotten about them.

We don't actually know what the overall probabilities of impact are; lots of Apollo-Amor asteroids are "only" a few hundred thousand tons and made of carbon black. They're hard to see, and no one is looking all that hard.

Now let's talk about the long-range comet detection program... there isn't one. And the NERVA interceptor ships... whoops, never got round to that either.... we're still using Atlas and Titan missiles from the 1960s for the government's launches. Unless they need something big launched, then they hire the Russian mafia to do it. They can barely get a man into orbit with a year's notice; to think that they could stop an asteroid with little warning is nuts.

[David]

The shuttle was supposed to be a cheap reuseable way into space.  But it sucks.  It is definitely not cheap.  It is only partially reuseable. They need to use the gigantic orange gas tank to make into space station parts. 

[J’raxis 270145]

The shuttle was supposed to be a cheap reuseable way into space.  But it sucks.  It is definitely not cheap.  It is only partially reuseable. They need to use the gigantic orange gas tank to make into space station parts. 

I've heard people describe the shuttle as "it's not reusable, it's salvageable."

[Puke]

I've heard people describe the shuttle as "it's not reusable, it's salvageable."

That sounds about right. 

[dalebert]

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/

Yeah, I think on FTL they pointed out that this was a mistake. It will be on Snopes if not already.

[PattyLee loves dogs]

It will be on Snopes if not already.

Too bad we don't have a Snopes for legislation... most of the bills that pass are urban legends.