How bad can the global economy get?

[ColdSoul]

They don't use silver on the back of glass to make mirrors they use nickel then something else iirc copper then paint. The layers of nickel copper and paint are in micro  meters that need a magnifying glass to measure the thickness of.

It is then heated and washed and packed.

Just some info since I did work in a mirror factory for almost a year and I ran the mirror line for a bit of time and had to monitor the mirrors backing/quality.

[John Edward Mercier]

If we get the second tier crash I'm expecting from the damaged labor market, we'll see the M1 skyrocket... then several years of drawdown as its expensed out.
The other option would be the US to go to immediate quantitative expense (print currency) resulting in a heartstopping jump in interest and commodity rates.

[SpeedPhreak]

so for those of us that don't have time to look over charts & news & stay on top of this what are the recommendations?  what order of priority?

1 stock pile a several monhs worth of dry food (beans, rice, grain)?
2 start a garden if applicable
3 buy guns/ammo
4 buy physical gold
5 go long on commodities - grains, energy, gold
6 short the dollar against ??? euro, franc, swissy, cable, yen?  all of the above?
.... looks like the euro is down this morning quite a bit from a quick look at forex.com hourly chart - didn't look at weekly or monthly.  the yen looks to be at a long term low (haven't bothered to look at forex in months - but its at 88 this morning)

7 if affordable buy realestate on a fixed interest rate - hyper inflation could pay that off in no time depending on how it works out, right?

im no expert on any of this - thats why i am asking.  I would, however, like to find the time to study & then trade FOREX full time for my full time income someday.

[anon88241661]

so for those of us that don't have time to look over charts & news & stay on top of this what are the recommendations?  what order of priority?

1 stock pile a several monhs worth of dry food (beans, rice, grain)?
2 start a garden if applicable
3 buy guns/ammo
4 buy physical gold
5 go long on commodities - grains, energy, gold
6 short the dollar against ??? euro, franc, swissy, cable, yen?  all of the above?
.... looks like the euro is down this morning quite a bit from a quick look at forex.com hourly chart - didn't look at weekly or monthly.  the yen looks to be at a long term low (haven't bothered to look at forex in months - but its at 88 this morning)

7 if affordable buy realestate on a fixed interest rate - hyper inflation could pay that off in no time depending on how it works out, right?

im no expert on any of this - thats why i am asking.  I would, however, like to find the time to study & then trade FOREX full time for my full time income someday.

1. Buy a gun and at least a few hundred rounds of Ammo if you haven't already done so.  Preferably, an AR-15 or something similar.
2. Plant a Garden
3. Make sure you have 3 months worth of physical cash savings in local currency in your personal possession... in case you lose your job/income.
4. Stock pile some food and basic supplies
5. Move 10%-25% of your net worth into physical Gold

I'd recommend people stay out of the stock, commodities, and currency markets.  There's so much leverage and manipulation that its basically impossible to make money if you're not playing with a stacked deck like the big boys (Government backed people).

I don't think its super important to prepare for a collapse.  I don't think it will happen in my lifetime.  Likewise, with US Hyperinflation. But, there could certainly be a break down in social order (like what happened in Katrina or the LA Riots).  So, you'll want to have a weapon that can protect yourself and your family with. 

The big thing I think most people should do is the Physical Gold and the Garden.  Think about how much money you spend every month on food... think of how much a garden could save you.  Now, think of how many tax dollars the Government will never see because you didn't buy the food that you grew.   Likewise with physical Gold.  Think of how much wealth people have lost in the last 100 years to the hidden inflation tax.  Now think if every person in America had 25% of their assets in physical Gold - it would have been much harder for the Government to collect as much as it did through the inflation tax.

I'm loving how deep all of the State Governments are cutting right now in the US.  The cuts we're seeing now due to lost tax revenue would have taken hundreds of thousands of activists decades to achieve - if they ever even could have.  Yet, by just cutting consumer spending those cuts took place in a single year!  If we could all just spend much less, the Government would have to get much smaller.   

So, try not to buy anything!  If you have to buy something, try and buy an import.  If you can't buy an import, try and buy online or from a huge retailer like WalMart so that the local NH tax base is kept as small as possible.  If we all stop eating out, buying American, buying things we don't need, and in general try and permanently cut our consumption and the size of the economy significantly the oppressive US Government will have no choice but to dramatically shrink rapidly.

As far as investing, I'd say try not to do that either.   Just buy physical Gold.  Every investment dollar generates many many more tax dollars for the Government than a Gold purchase.   Recently, I've been asking myself how much money do I actually want to have and why?   Would it really make me happier?  Would it really help me lead the kind of life I want to?   I've come to the conclusion that hoarding would go much farther toward that end in that it will help bring about liberty in my lifetime.

Anyway... just my thoughts and opinions.  I'm sure others will have different views and disagree.  I just happen to really like the idea of Agorism.

       - anon

[ColdSoul]

so for those of us that don't have time to look over charts & news & stay on top of this what are the recommendations?  what order of priority?

1 stock pile a several monhs worth of dry food (beans, rice, grain)?
2 start a garden if applicable
3 buy guns/ammo
4 buy physical gold
5 go long on commodities - grains, energy, gold
6 short the dollar against ??? euro, franc, swissy, cable, yen?  all of the above?
.... looks like the euro is down this morning quite a bit from a quick look at forex.com hourly chart - didn't look at weekly or monthly.  the yen looks to be at a long term low (haven't bothered to look at forex in months - but its at 88 this morning)

7 if affordable buy realestate on a fixed interest rate - hyper inflation could pay that off in no time depending on how it works out, right?

im no expert on any of this - thats why i am asking.  I would, however, like to find the time to study & then trade FOREX full time for my full time income someday.

I would say starting a garden, or raising animals would be #1 for the following reasons:

1. Getting the garden going/animals later might not be possible
2. Learning to deal with the animals/garden will be harder when your depending on the garden/animals for food
3. You will have a valuable assest that will provide you food and help you expand your knowledge in the mean time.

I would say that #2 would be to purchase a gun with plenty (1,000+ rds) of ammo for the following reasons:

1. Guns normally are inflation proof, and they are also useful for self defense and defense of your property (see above)
2. Ammo will be as good as cash if it's a versatile round (Ex. 7.62, 5.56, 9mm, 12ga, .22lr are my fav's)
3. You need to learn to use the gun to be able to use it properly

From there I would say it depends, most likely Food, Other Supplies (depends on what you need but solar panels, books on things you need to know, etc, etc, etc.) then Gold, then land/home.

But then it all depends on what you feel comfortable with.

[John Edward Mercier]

I would say it depends on your situation.
You recently lived through hyperinflation and quantitative expansion... the dramatic price jump in crude oil and gasoline was triggered by a rapid decline in the USD.
So its really a matter if you are trying to survive, or trying to get an economic advantage through capital preservation with some liquidity to move quickly on opportunities when they arise.

[SpeedPhreak]

i was mostly asking/making the point for a general guideline that most people could use.

I don't want to hijack this thread or get off topic, however...

for myself - I wanted to gain economic advantage - but thanks to factors outside of my control my entire savings was spent in about 6 months (several grand).  I'm a felon so my brothers are the lucky owners of my guns & I live in a warehouse so I don't really have a place for a garden.  Though my girlfriend could start one (if she had the motivation) at our house.  I need to build my "foundation" again (emergency cash, solid vehicle(s), etc..).  Building the foundation back is not a time to buy gold or invest obviously.

my (new) personal plan was to try & save enough again to open a trading account or at least enough to let a commodities broker manage for me (last I looked into it it was about 5k to trade 1 contract of oil & I spoke w/a broker who would take the 3k I had disposable at the time & trade it for me).  Once I was in a place financially that I could - I want to trade full time (w/an offshore broker) for my self (with my long term goal of living off grid in the boonies here or abroad self sufficient style).

I already work up to 70hrs a week at a job & have a business that serves a small but loyal client base - or I would get another job.  My g/f has our daughter to worry about & a full time job... so another j o b isn't in her future either.

Like I said - I haven't had the time to research anything for myself in several months so that would be the 1st order of business - it just seems to me w/the threat of (hyper)inflation, some (if not most) markets under valued, reading some of the links posted above, etc... that now would be a good time to long commodities &/or short the dollar.  As I said though I haven't fully researched everything to make that determination for sure - which is part of the reason I posted in this thread.

What I'm mostly worried about is that I'm out of time... by the time I have my foundation again & have saved the cash to grow it the poo will have hit the fan & I'll be stuck w/a safe full of worthless cash & no way to protect myself or family.  A best case scenario for me to have my foundation back is going to be 3-4 months with enough saved to trade/invest in an additional 3-4 months.  Realistically I'm thinking 12months total.  Thanks to debt I didn't know "we" had & couldn't cover I just don't know.  The best thing we have going for us is 2 houses - 1 w/a renter that pays $10 a month less than the mortgage.

[ColdSoul]

One thing you can do instead of investing in commodity's is save your cash in Nickels!

Nickels are the only coin to not be changed for almost 100+ years. It's 75% copper, 25% nickel so it's worth more than a dollar bill is actually worth. In the coming SHTF type scenario you will be able to get more for some nickels then you will be able to get with 100 dollar bill.

[John Edward Mercier]

I wouldn't worry about that...
This is just the deflation of a much larger bubble. In 1982, the Greenspan Commission realized the US had a labor bubble produced by the baby boom and expanding US lifespan.
So this is just a deflation of that bubble.

IMHO, I would suggest that you stay as liquid as possible. It will help with any economic 'bumps' you might encounter, and allow any excess to be used to purchase the goods/services that will move you in the direction you personally desire. When you finally get to the point that you can't think of any goods/services to improve your situation... then you can store the excess labor through capital.