Race riots???

[Romak]

Let me premise this by saying I dont like either Mccain or Osama. With that being said, Ive noticed a trend. The polls how Osama leading and it looks like he's guaranteed victory by those same polls. The media is in their glory and everyone is jumping on their bandwagon. Or are they? My buddy bet me $500 that Osama yard signs would be more abundant than Mccain signs. So we went for a joyride which turned into 6 hours and over a tank of gas. The result from driving from Keene, to Peterborough, to Hillsborough, to Manchester, to Concord and everywhere in between. 345 Mccain signs, and 95 Osama signs. We did not include Osama/Mccain signs on the highway/byway, only those in front of actual homes. FYI from Hillsborough to Manchester not 1 and I mean not 1 Osama sign anywhere to be seen on the highways, but plenty of Mccain signs. Take the ride yourself. Finally my question is what if the pollsters are misleading everyone to make it seem like Osama has it in the bag. Last I checked NH was 54% to 44% Osama in the lead. So Mccain actually wins and Osama loses, the media cries conspiracy and we have ourselves a race war. We know people will riot whether he wins or loses. But if he loses, the hinges fall off, martial law is declared, and oh boy.. Any thoughts? Im $500 ahead, any takers?

[margomaps]

Um....no.   

FYI, Obama signs out-number McCain signs by a 4-1 margin (my estimate) on the far more densely-populated Seacoast.

[dalebert]

FYI, Obama signs out-number McCain signs by a 4-1 margin (my estimate) on the far more densely-populated Seacoast.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the most densely populated area was Manchester and then probably Nashua. Manchester is the largest city by population.

I'm not posing an opinion on the controversy or the predictions, but I will say that the LA Times was notorious for always being 5% off on polls, favoring the liberal direction. I remember pegging it in the Schwarzenegger election. A friend mentioned the current poll and was getting some unfounded optimism for Davis and I said "It'll be 5% off" and I was exactly right. It was never mentioned amongst my liberal friends again. Apparently it is common knowledge to pollsters that polls lean liberal by a certain margin, probably close to that but might vary a little for region, and the good polling places adjust their predictions accordingly. It seems to do with liberals who say they're going to vote but then don't carry through. Conservatives vote at a much higher percentage than liberals. Some liberal media outlets just don't adjust their polls for this historical trend and they're not technically lying.

So that's the trend for the LA Times. I'm not sure where your polls are coming from, but it could be interesting to check the source and then compare the actual results and see if the trend holds up.

[Ron Helwig]

My take on the polling is that the pollsters are manipulating the numbers to make it look more like a horse race. Obama is going to win, possibly by greater margins than Reagan over Mondale. If they allow the polling to indicate reality, then they won't be able to sell as many polls and they won't be as "exciting".

[margomaps]

FYI, Obama signs out-number McCain signs by a 4-1 margin (my estimate) on the far more densely-populated Seacoast.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the most densely populated area was Manchester and then probably Nashua. Manchester is the largest city by population.

Ok, if you insist. 

NH Population density map

Since population density is a function of population and area, it is certainly true that the Seacoast region has a higher population density than the area formed when driving "from Keene, to Peterborough, to Hillsborough, to Manchester, to Concord and everywhere in between", as Romak said.  Most of that area has extremely low population density.  Yes, Manchester is the largest city in NH, and he also included the relatively population-dense Concord and Keene in his area.  But "everywhere inbetween" includes large swaths of sparsely populated rural areas -- undoubtedly bastions of McCain support.

The area southwest of the Seacoast -- the southern Merrimack valley, including Nashua -- is more densely populated than the Seacoast.

In any event, I was merely responding to Romak's assertion about McCain's apparent level of support relative to Obama's.  If signage is any indication of support, then Obama has more support than McCain in the Seacoast region, at least from what I've seen driving around this area.

If polling numbers are any indication of support, then Obama has a clear lead in NH.  Are polls perfect?  No.  Is it likely that there's a vast conspiracy amongst a dozen or more polling companies and organizations to inflate Obama's numbers?  No (sorry Ron  ).

[Lloyd Danforth]

I'm still writing in Ron Paul

[margomaps]

I'm still writing in Ron Paul

[Raineyrocks]

I'm still writing in Ron Paul

  Me too!

[Romak]

I'm writing in Ron Paul as well. Amazing how right hes been about everything. Polls are obviously skewed. The leaders of all polling including Rasmussen, Gallup, Real Clear, Politico, etc all lean to the left considerably. Zogby is sort of impartial but by no means fair. Calling 1000 people nationwide and figuring thats a good estimate of where America stands is ridiculous. All I was saying is that I believe Mccain will win and by acting like Osama is ahead for the past month of so people will revolt thinking he got a raw deal when all along the polls were off. I read a pretty interesting article about how when a good percentage of white people go to the polls after saying they would vote for Osama they will change their minds when in the privacy of the voting booth. This article estimates that Osama will lose anywhere from 5-10% of the vote due to this. Just food for thought. Either way in my humble opinion things are going to go south very fast whether he wins or loses. Funny thing about our drive the majority of Osama signs that were a huge part of that number were in Peterborough. Everywhere else including Manchester and even Concord to a degree were very pro Mccain. Someone puts a sign in their lawn its a very good indication as to who they will vote for. Guess we'll see what happens. I'm just glad I live in the country and not in the city. Last little interesting tidbit we saw about 10 signs with a picture of Osama and underneath it was written racist prick. Good for a chuckle.

[Romak]

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/police-prepare-for-unrest-2008-10-21.html

Just came across this. Kind of fits.

[BillKauffman]

Just curious.

Do you think it contributes at all - in some small way - to the level of tension in this country to refer to Obama as "Osama" in your post?

[Romak]

I call it like I see it. He is in bed with peope who despise Jews, Whites, and America in general. Isnt that how the boogyman Osama feels?

[margomaps]

Polls are obviously skewed.

Yeah, I heard the same thing about Ron Paul prior to the primary in NH.  RP supporters were whining about how the polls were significantly undercounting his support because cellphones weren't included, and cellphone users were likely to be younger and therefore more likely to support Ron Paul.  Guess what?  Ron Paul did almost exactly as the polls predicted here in NH.  No big conspiracy!

The leaders of all polling including Rasmussen, Gallup, Real Clear, Politico, etc all lean to the left considerably.

Oh really?  Can you cite evidence to support this bold assertion?

Zogby is sort of impartial but by no means fair.

Oh really?  Can you cite evidence to support this bold assertion?

Calling 1000 people nationwide and figuring thats a good estimate of where America stands is ridiculous.

Actually, it's not ridiculous.  It's not perfect, to be sure.  But it's a remarkably good indicator.  When you understand even the basics of statistical sampling, you will likely stop viewing it as some voodoo conspiracy.

I read a pretty interesting article about how when a good percentage of white people go to the polls after saying they would vote for Osama they will change their minds when in the privacy of the voting booth. This article estimates that Osama will lose anywhere from 5-10% of the vote due to this. Just food for thought.

That's a good point.  One of the downsides of relying on statistical sampling for opinion polls is the reliability of the people being polled.  Certainly they can lie, or just change their minds between the opinion poll and election day.  That's one of the reasons I said this type of sampling isn't perfect.  It's pretty darn good though, and errors in polling are not evidence of some vast polling company/media conspiracy.

Either way in my humble opinion things are going to go south very fast whether he wins or loses.

Well we can agree on something at least.     Although I don't necessarily expect things to go south faster than they've already been going recently.

[BillKauffman]

I call it like I see it. He is in bed with peope who despise Jews, Whites, and America in general. Isnt that how the boogyman Osama feels?

What are you talking about?

There are people right here in this forum who despise America (nationalism).

[Lloyd Danforth]

I used to participate in Zogby polls. They seemed to be all political and varied only a little.  From time to time I would see the result of another Zogby poll that I would like to have been involved in. I inquired  about why I was not invited to join in these and got no response. I think when polls come out the way they want, Zogby insures they stay that way.