Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S. in 2010

[Friday]

Anybody heard of this guy before?

from the Wall Street Journal:
As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010

By ANDREW OSBORN

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.

Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.

The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.

Write to Andrew Osborn at andrew.osborn@wsj.com
Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A1

Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

[Little Owl]

Yes, I have.  Every three months or so some irresponsible journalist recycles this stale story verbatim, pretending its a shocking new revelation.  It was old news then, and its old news now.

And by the way, its bullshit.  File this under "iron curtain pipe dream".

Ooh, he "predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union".  So did Reagan, so did my mother.  We're not hearing about his wrong predictions.

Sure, the U.S. might eventually break up.  I for one welcome it; a breakup into say, 50 sovereign pieces.  But it aint gonna happen in 2010.  Sorry.

[geoff]

What makes you so sure?  It seems like the totalitarian police state is becoming almost intolerable, there will probably be mandatory swine flu vaccinations, possible large scale/hyper inflation of the currency.  It seems like something bad happening in the near future is a good possibility, which could lead to the breakup of the US.

[dalebert]

Ooh, he "predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union".  So did Reagan, so did my mother.  We're not hearing about his wrong predictions.

You could tell us about some of his wrong predictions instead of just referencing them in the abstract. That would solidify your point pretty well.

[Russell Kanning]

i agree that the us will break up ... probably not as soon as  next year ... but here's hoping

[K. Darien Freeheart]

I think MOST people's predictions on secession fail. The biggest fallicy, I think, is the tendancy to keep the states together. I think a lot of people either are afraid of secession because of civil war (which is off the table if the FedGov collapses) or they simply don't think of it. With "No more America" on the brain, I think a LOT of folks would be willing to break from their states as well, given the number of disconnects within many states.

Hey, it happened last time.

[freeborn]

It really doesn't matter because, according to the Mayan calendar and Nostradamus, the world is going to end on December 21, 2012.  So you better bend over, put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye.

[Little Owl]

You could tell us about some of his wrong predictions instead of just referencing them in the abstract. That would solidify your point pretty well.

I don't feel like researching this guy, and I suspect he doesn't go around advertising any false predictions he has made.  And if he used to be an analyst for the KGB, most of his predictions right or wrong are probably kept secret.  My point is simply that the one prediction mentioned, the collapse of the Soviet Union, was a no-brainer.  Neither his facts nor his credentials make me inclined to give credence to his predictions.  As the other Russians in the article allude to, this is a pipe dream from a nation becoming frustrated with the U.S.  Sort of like when Ahmedinijad (sp?) "predicts" the collapse of the U.S..

This reminds me of the Peak Oil people.  First it was 1980s, then it was 2000 (nice round number), then it was 2005, 2007, and now its almost certainly going to be 2010.  Since oil is finite, they WILL be correct someday, and they'll say "We knew it all along"

What makes you so sure?

1) We're not even close to a civil war.  We can all wish the sheeple were more upset, but as long as they get their Big Macs, Britney Spears, and American Idol, most remain ignorantly content.

2) Historically, collapse of the government currency has NOT resulted in a breakup of the nation.  If anything, it often results in the consolidation of political power (think Weimar Germany).

3) Virtually every other Russian analyst with access to similar information thinks his claims are crap.

[EthanLeeVita]

It really doesn't matter because, according to the Mayan calendar and Nostradamus, the world is going to end on December 21, 2012.  So you better bend over, put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye.

Thats one interpretation. The other is there is a fundamental shift in the world much like Christianity becoming dominant(religion going from inclusive to exclusive), the end of hunter-gatherer days(increase in markets, division of labor, rise of currency) etc. Maybe anarchy will gain the necessary support in late 2012? lol...one can dream.

[K. Darien Freeheart]

I've always thought that December 21, 2012 will be "The Singularity", the moment where technology begins improving itself and building technology that improves itself and builds technology.. and so on.

A few moments after that Singularity, the computer will solve the problem of death, humans will live forever and have the technology to expand outward from Earth.

December 21st 2012 isn't the end of the world, it's the end of TIME. Cause once it's not a valuable commodity, we'll stop tracking it.

[Friday]

I've always thought that December 21, 2012 will be "The Singularity", the moment where technology begins improving itself and building technology that improves itself and builds technology.. and so on.

Artificial life will be created within four months, a controversial scientist has predicted. Craig Venter, who led a private project to sequence the human genome, told The Times that his team had cleared a critical hurdle to creating man-made organisms in a laboratory....

[Lloyd Danforth]

I think MOST people's predictions on secession fail. The biggest fallicy, I think, is the tendancy to keep the states together. I think a lot of people either are afraid of secession because of civil war (which is off the table if the FedGov collapses) or they simply don't think of it. With "No more America" on the brain, I think a LOT of folks would be willing to break from their states as well, given the number of disconnects within many states.

Hey, it happened last time.

The biggest reason the states stay together is because about .0001 percent of the population know what secession means and .0001 percent of them have ever considered the posibility.

[Pat McCotter]

I think MOST people's predictions on secession fail. The biggest fallicy, I think, is the tendancy to keep the states together. I think a lot of people either are afraid of secession because of civil war (which is off the table if the FedGov collapses) or they simply don't think of it. With "No more America" on the brain, I think a LOT of folks would be willing to break from their states as well, given the number of disconnects within many states.

Hey, it happened last time.

The biggest reason the states stay together is because about .0001 percent of the population know what secession means and .0001 percent of them have ever considered the posibility.

Where's your source for this? 

[Friday]

I think MOST people's predictions on secession fail. The biggest fallicy, I think, is the tendancy to keep the states together. I think a lot of people either are afraid of secession because of civil war (which is off the table if the FedGov collapses) or they simply don't think of it. With "No more America" on the brain, I think a LOT of folks would be willing to break from their states as well, given the number of disconnects within many states.

Hey, it happened last time.

The biggest reason the states stay together is because about .0001 percent of the population know what secession means and .0001 percent of them have ever considered the posibility.

Where's your source for this? 

Maxx told him.

[Lloyd Danforth]

In all honesty I don't even know if .0001% of .0001% of the population results in even one 'entire' person