The Great Global Debt Prison

[Silent_Bob]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-great-global-debt-prison


Guest Post: The Great Global Debt Prison
By Tyler Durden
Created 02/04/2011 - 20:24

Submitted by Giordano Bruno of Neithercorp Press [1]

The Great Global Debt Prison

By Giordano Bruno

Neithercorp Press – 2/4/2011

Tense and terrible times inevitably summon an odd coupling of two very different and difficult human conditions; honesty, and brutality. Certain painful truths are revealed, and often, a palpable fury erupts. Being that times today are particularly tense, and on the verge of being spectacularly terrible, perhaps we should embrace both conditions in a constructive manner, and become brutally honest with ourselves. This begins by admitting to that which most ails us. It begins by admitting how far we have fallen...

Our economy, our culture, our entire world, is built upon debt. No one ever asked us if that's how we wanted it, it is simply how the system was designed when we came into it. Many of us have lived our entire lives under the assumption that debt is a necessary function of daily commerce and a valuable driver of successful society. Most households in America operate at a steep loss, trapped in constantly building cycles of liability and interest. There are even widely held schools of economic thought that are centered completely on the production and utilization of nothing but debt. Only recently have many people begun to ask themselves what the tangible benefits are (if any) in being dependent on debt based finance.

After careful examination, it becomes evident that debt does not fuel economy, it suffocates it. It does not nurture growth, it stunts and poisons it. Extreme debt is not a fundamental organ in a body of commerce; it is an aberration, a spreading cancer which disrupts the circulation of healthy trade. Debt is, in large part, unnecessary.

Of course, debt can be very useful if you are the controller or determining overseer of a system, especially if you wish to centralize and maintain power over that system. The tactical wielding of debt has been used by elites for centuries as a means to imprison the masses, or to create an atmosphere of endless dependency. Let's take a look at what debt really is, and how it is being used against the average American today...

Understanding Debt

The Charles Dickens classic 'Little Dorrit' is commonly misinterpreted as a "love story", however, the primary character in the book is not Little Dorrit, or the kindly Arthur Clennam, but the debt system of Britain itself, and its effects on every social class from the street beggar to the elitist socialite. Dickens despised the idea of debt and debtors prisons, being that his father was thrown into one for a good portion of his life, forcing young Charles to work just to support his parents. Dickens understood well the evil intent behind the debt system, and railed against it often in his writings.

One figure in 'Little Dorrit' which fascinated me was the character of Mr. Merdle, a national banking superstar who dominates the investment world with the help of British treasury officials and various political deviants. Merdle is referred to by merchant circles as "the man of the age", a financial marvel who seems to make fortunes in every endeavor he touches. Little does anyone realize that Merdle is a fraud, a Ponzi scheme artist who takes money from unwary speculators and sinks it into increasingly more tenuous investments. In order to continue hiding the fact that all his financial ventures are ending in ruin, he lures more and more depositors to pay off previous debts. The problem is that Merdle is creating debt to chase debt. Eventually, his insolvency, and that of all those who trusted him, will catch up and overtake the lie he has carefully projected. All economic instability is invariably revealed, no matter how expertly it is hidden.

Mr. Merdle, in my mind, is an almost perfect literary representation of today's private Federal Reserve and the global banking syndicates of JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, etc. The Federal Reserve, with the help of politicians on both sides of the aisle, created a series of illusory incentives (through interest rate cuts) which allowed banks to begin lending almost unlimited fiat at rock bottom prices. America was awash in credit, to the point that it was nearly impossible for the average person to avoid the temptation of borrowing. What we didn't understand then, but are beginning to grasp now, is that credit derived from fiat is not "capital", it is NOT wealth. Credit is the creation of an obligation, to be paid at a later date, if it is paid at all, and because there are no rules to tie the debt to any legitimate collateral (at least for banks), there is nothing to back the obligation if it falters. Therefore, fiat induced credit is not the creation of wealth (as Keynesians seem to believe), but the destruction of wealth!

Because of its lack of tangibility, debt can be packaged and repackaged into whatever form banks like. Derivatives are a perfect example of the phantom nature of debt; securities which have no real value whatsoever yet are rated and traded as if they are a solid commodity. This brand of commerce is, at its very root, a kind of fiscal time bomb. Just as in the literary world of 'Little Dorrit', the Ponzi scheme in our very literal world had to reach a tipping point, and in 2008, it did.

One glaring difference between our troubles and those of Dickens' fiction is that Merdle actually feels guilt over what he has done (or he at least fears the justice that will be dealt him), causing him to commit suicide towards the end of the novel. In the real world, the Merdles of our era appear fully content to watch this country crumble due to their intrigues, and rarely suffer any consequences for what they pursue. In fact, the modern banking elite are more liable to revel in the searing shockwave of a credit detonation, rather than feel any "remorse". The point is, Dickens saw clearly over 150 years ago what many Americans today still do not; debt is an abstract idea, an absurd game which confuses and ensnares innocent people. Debt based systems con the citizenry into trading away their tangible wealth and labor for the promise of future settlements that will never come. Debt serves only to weaken the masses, and empower creditors.

The Consequences Of Debt

How has debt based economics served us so far?

The credit card debt of the average American household ranges from $8000 to $15,000. Total household debt including mortgage and home equity loans has hit an average of 136% of annual household income:

http://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/credit-card-industry-facts-personal-debt-statistics-1276.php
[2]
http://blogs.forbes.com/moneybuilder/2010/06/24/one-big-difference-between-chinese-and-american-households-debt/ [3]

Approximately 80% of mortgage loans issued to subprime borrowers over the past decade were Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM), meaning 80% of mortgages in the U.S. have reset or are ready to reset at much higher interest rates. There were approximately 1.4 million bankruptcy filings in 2009, and 1.5 million in 2010. One in every 45 homes in America received a foreclosure filing in 2010:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/top-10-cities-where-foreclosure-rates-are-highest-2011-01-27 [4]

http://www.uscourts.gov/Statistics/BankruptcyStatistics.aspx [5]

Keep in mind that in 2005, new government regulations were implemented making filing for bankruptcy much more difficult. In 2006, filings collapsed. Now, despite stringent obstacles, filings are up again over 100%.


The "official" national debt now stands at over $14 trillion, which is around 100% of U.S. GDP (with entitlement programs like social security included, this number is probably closer to 400% of GDP) . The 100% mark is often cited as the breaking point for most countries struggling to sustain liabilities. Greece's national debt stood at 108% – 113% of GDP when it collapsed into austerity. From 2004, to 2010 (a span of only six years) our national debt has doubled. To put this in perspective, it took the U.S. over 200 years to reach its first trillion dollars of debt. Now, we are looking at the accumulation of at least a trillion every year. This is unsustainable.


The much talked about debt ceiling has been raised six times in the past three years. This frequency is unprecedented. International ratings agencies are now openly suggesting an end to America's AAA credit rating:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-28/moody-s-says-time-shortens-for-u-s-rating-outlook-as-s-p-downgrades-japan.html [8]

A credit rating downgrade would be devastating to what little foreign interest is left in the U.S. Treasury bond investment.

On the local front, cities and states are on the verge of folding due to the evaporation of municipal bond markets. Cities depend greatly on two sources of revenue in order to continue operations; property taxes, and municipal investment. Property taxes, obviously, are disappearing as property values continue to spiral downwards. This leaves only municipals, which have also unfortunately fallen off the map:


Wall Street analyst, Meredith Witney, recently stated in an interview with 60 Minutes that she believed 50 to 100 American cities would default in the midst of a municipal crisis in 2011. She was promptly lambasted by the rest of the MSM for her prediction. In my opinion, she was rather minimalist in her estimates, especially if the Federal Reserve does not commit to another round of quantitative easing (QE3) for the states (Bernanke denies this policy would be enacted by the Fed, though, which means there is a good chance it will be).

To summarize, the U.S. is swimming in debt. Absolutely nothing has been changed for the better in terms of wealth destruction and liabilities since the credit crisis began, and the situation only looks more precarious with each passing quarter.

Where Is The Debt Roller Coaster Taking Us?

What is the most likely outcome of the conditions described above? The vital factor will be the continued Federal Reserve policy of fiat bailouts as a "counterbalance" to the evolving debt crisis.

As is clearly explored in the Dickens novel we discussed earlier, staving off the effects of debt by creating more debt is a temporary solution that only leads to greater calamity down the road. Anyone who believes that fiat inflation actually "cancels out" debt instability is going to find themselves sorely disappointed. At bottom, government created stimulus is not a solution to corporate engineered debt burdens, but a reallocation of debt away from banks and into the laps of the American taxpayer. The Federal Reserve and our own Treasury have not paid off anything. They merely shifted the responsibility of payment away from the banks that created the problem, and handed that responsibility to us. On top of this, they have also set the dollar up for a crushing blow of devaluation. Here is where the prison bars enclose...

If our historic debt is not being diminished, but only moved around while it expands, then this means that eventually our credit worthiness will come into question. In fact, it already has. Foreign investment in long term Treasuries has dwindled. Our own central bank is now the largest holder of U.S. debt, surpassing even China (Note: this news has so far been ignored by almost all mainstream outlets):

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/120372fc-2e48-... [10]

So, the question of debt default turns from theoretical to quite imperative. If the Federal Reserve continues buying our debt with fiat, it means that the effects of the debt will only be delayed, the dollar will be dropped as the world reserve currency, and hyperinflation is a certainty. If they do not continue buying, then our government defaults, the country's financial infrastructure ceases to exist, the dollar loses its world reserve status, and hyperinflation is a certainty. The banking elites haven't just erected a prison, they've tossed us in Alcatraz!

The battle over yet another increase of the debt ceiling has obscured the fact that the debt has already done all the damage it needs to do. Freezing the ceiling in place becomes a battle of principle, and an important one, but it would in no way stop the dysfunction and chaos to come. At best, it might shorten the duration of the disaster by a few years. The important thing to remember is that government intervention will only incur greater loss. There is no easy way out, no magic shortcut, no last minute brilliant idea that will wrap up this mess. Years of hard work, determination, honesty, and sacrifice are ahead of us.

Inflation will be the buzzword of 2011. Endless debt facilitates endless Keynesian liquidity. Expect to see commodities double once again this year.

Household debt will probably level off through 2011, as more Americans abandon their credit habits and make more concerted efforts to save. In 2009, Visa lost 11% of its credit use, while MasterCard lost 22%. Over 8 million consumers have stopped using credit cards altogether since the end of 2009:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/holiday-shopping-americans-cut-back-credit-card/story?id=12367547 [11]

Bank lending is still tight as creditors raise the requirements necessary to receive FHA (Federal Housing Administration) mortgages:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-17/home-ownership-gets-harder-for-americans-as-lenders-restrict-fha-mortgages.html
[12]
Will credit use and debt based consumption ever return to levels similar to 2006? Not a chance. One might predict then that savings will rise dramatically as credit use falls, but this too is unlikely. Why? Because over the next year Americans will be spending far more on essential goods due to inflation than they ever have before. Whatever savings they would have accrued will be eaten up by the relentless spike in commodity prices. The term used for the combination of chronic debt, low job growth, and burgeoning inflation, is "stagflation". I honestly can't think of a worse situation than being subject to exploding costs in light of a dilapidated standard of living. As Dickens points out plainly in 'Little Dorrit', how can a man be expected to settle his obligations when he is imprisoned for them?

Breaking The Cycle In The Midst Of Global Strife

Why after thirty years under the despotic rule of the Hosni Mubarak regime did the Egyptian people suddenly decide to revolt? Why now? The MSM will field a number of political tales, but the key to most popular uprisings, especially in the Middle East, has been the lack of necessities. The last time Egypt saw an uprising of this magnitude was during the Bread Riots of 1977, when the IMF terminated state subsidies of basic foodstuffs. Is it any wonder that turmoil has developed so quickly in the region as grain prices double? This is the devastating power of debt, and the so called "solutions" which merely perpetuate debt.

Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen, are only the beginning. The sting of inflation will be unbearable as austerity measures take hold in Europe, and the potential for riots in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy looms large. The most volatile environment on the planet to date, however, is the United States, which, as we have shown in previous articles, is being dismantled deliberately and viciously in preparation for IMF regulation and centralization. Today, the IMF is stalking Egypt, ready to pounce as the nation goes mad. Tomorrow, it will be us. I will be very surprised if we are not hearing about IMF intervention in the U.S. economy and the dollar by the end of this year, offering more debt, and more unaccountable governance.

The secret to breaking the circle of debt is to adopt a policy of decentralization, and self sufficiency. To take back control of our local commerce and to establish micro-economies with self contained methods of trade. Debt must be removed from the equation altogether, and systems protected by flexibility and redundancy must be applied. Savings and meaningful production would have to take the place of endless spending and outsourcing. The claustrophobic nurse-maid philosophies of globalism would have to be cast aside and replaced with goals of independence and self reliance. By cutting our dependency on the corrupt establishment, we sever its ability to feed off of us. By building a better system, we make the faulty one obsolete. Whether or not we throw off the trappings of the debt machine is entirely up to us.

Two very important steps are required; the realization that debt is not the only way, and, the realization that debt is the worst way. Prosperity is not achieved at the expense of the future. The society that finally takes this fact to heart will accomplish incredible things indeed...

[Silent_Bob]

http://www.grandpappy.info/honehour.htm


The One-Hour Meltdown
Copyright © July 22, 2009 by Robert Wayne Atkins, P.E.
All rights reserved and all rights protected under international copyright law.

Introduction
Hour Glass The following is just my opinion. It is nothing more than my opinion. I have nothing to substantiate or prove any aspect of my opinion. My opinion is simply the logical conclusion of a law-abiding sixty-year old Christian grandfather who has both an engineering degree and an M.B.A. degree and who has seen both good times and hard times during his life.

The Current Situation:

At the present time every nation in the entire world is facing serious financial and social stress. If only a few nations were involved then it might be possible to contain the upcoming meltdown to a few specific geographical areas. This has been successfully done in the past. However, since the entire world is currently on the edge of the cliff, when the meltdown begins it will impact almost everyone on the face of the earth.

Unless God chooses to intervene, the meltdown is no longer avoidable. Our governments and our financial institutions are no longer in control. However, to keep the system working just a little longer they must maintain the illusion that they have the system under control. But the system is broken and it can't be fixed.

There are two reasons why the system can't be fixed:

   1. It has grown beyond its own capacity to support itself.
   2. It has become so complex that no one can do anything significant to fix it because it is hemorrhaging in too many different places.

The average person in every nation on the face of the earth knows the meltdown is coming. The wealthy people know it. The poor people know it. Nobody wants it to happen. But almost everyone is just patiently waiting for it to begin and at the same time hoping that it doesn't begin too soon.

Nobody knows when the meltdown will actually start. It may begin one-month from now. Or a year from now. Or three-years from now.

But almost everyone knows that at some future date the meltdown will occur.

This widespread knowledge of the impending disaster is the reason that when the disaster begins it will quickly and completely spiral out-of-control in one-hour or less. In my opinion, most people do not seriously believe it could happen this quickly. Most people expect a more gradual meltdown. They may be right because nobody can predict the future, and that includes myself.

The One-Hour Meltdown
However, my personal opinion is that once the meltdown begins then in less than one-hour it will quickly escalate far beyond anyone's ability to control or manage it on a worldwide basis. The five basic assumptions that cause me to believe in my "one-hour meltdown theory" are as follows:

   1. Banks: The financial institutions around the world cannot withstand a full-scale worldwide bank run. Therefore, they have already made plans to immediately shut down the instant they are told to do so. Within minutes, all across the globe, all the ATM machines will be offline, all credit card and debit card verification transactions will be halted, and all banks will have their vaults locked and their doors locked and their building emptied of all personnel, except perhaps for some special security guards. All high-level bank executives will immediately disappear to a wide variety of remote safe unknown locations. All telephone call inquiries to any of the financial institutions will be automatically answered by a computer with a pre-recorded message similar to the following: "Our system is currently experiencing an extremely high call volume and therefore we are unable to answer your call at this time. Please try again later when our call volume returns to normal."

   2. Governments: The vast majority of our government leaders all over the world are relatively intelligent individuals. They completely understand the ramifications of a "bank holiday" in our computer controlled financial economy. Therefore, all government offices will also be immediately shut down, and they will empty their buildings and lock their doors. Any transaction in progress, including any trials in progress, will be immediately halted and postponed until some future date. All high-level government officials, including all judges and tax officials, will immediately disappear to a wide variety of remote safe unknown locations.

   3. Retail Businesses: Since they will be unable to process even simple transactions, all retail establishments, both large and small, will immediately lock their doors to prevent anyone else from entering. If possible, they will complete any transactions for customers already inside their building if those customers have enough cash to pay for their purchases. Any customers wishing to pay by check or credit card or debit card will be told that the verification system is down and their transaction can't be completed. All customers will then be immediately escorted to the doors and the doors will be briefly opened and then immediately locked after they exit. In addition, in a manner similar to what happened during the World Trade Center meltdown, each store's management may demand that their employees remain at their stations until further notice or they will lose their jobs for leaving without management's permission. But most of the more intelligent employees will leave at the same time as the store's last few remaining customers. The store's special security guards may or may not remain behind in order to protect the store with their lives. Since most of these special security guards are not paid exceptionally well, a large number of them may decide that they should return home and protect their own families instead.

   4. Criminals: Anyone and everyone who has any criminal tendencies and who has been patiently waiting for this to happen will immediately see it as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to improve their financial situation. More than likely the vast majority of these criminals have already made very detailed plans that includes exactly which businesses they are going to rob first, second, third, and so on. Any business with a reasonable level of cash-on-hand will be very high on every criminal's list. Every jewelry store and pawn shop that has any type of silver or gold jewelry, or precious stones (diamonds, rubies, emeralds, etc.), will be very high on everyone's list. The warfare that breaks out at these establishments between competing criminals will not be pleasant.

   5. Normal People: Normal average people will begin looting. Grocery stores will be broken into and they will be completely emptied from wall-to-wall, including the rear storage area, in less than one-hour. Stores that have firearms, ammunition, appliances, clothing, shoes, or anything else needed by the average citizen will be emptied in less than one-hour. In skirmishes over the few remaining resources, normal average people will begin killing one another inside the stores, and in the parking lots outside the stores, and on the streets as these fully loaded vehicles try to escape with their loot.

The above events will all happen simultaneously during the first one-hour of the meltdown. After that first hour has passed, things will really begin to get nasty. Everyone will quickly realize there are not are not enough law enforcement personnel to protect everyone and everything. Although the military will probably be ordered to protect specific high priority establishments and resources, there will simply not be enough military personnel to protect individual civilians or businesses.

Events After the One-Hour Meltdown
Almost everyone who has lost their jobs, their vehicles, their homes, and their life savings will now have nothing more to lose by seeking some form of retribution against the society that took everything away from them that they once "partially" owned.

Anyone who has received a minor speeding ticket in the recent past and who honestly could not afford the fine will be in a very unpleasant mood. Everyone who has had their property taxes increased at the same time their income decreased will not be in a good mood. Everyone who has had their credit card interest rate increased at the same time their employer was reducing the number of hours they worked each week will not be in a good mood. Everyone who has been reduced from a two-family income down to a one-family income will not be in a good mood. Everyone who lost their job because their employer went bankrupt will not be in a good mood.

The vast majority of these individuals will have been just barely surviving in a situation where they were living hand-to-mouth on government welfare or the charity of the local community (unemployment checks, welfare checks, food stamps, food pantries, etc.). The instant they realize there will be no more government welfare or charity, then these individuals will have no hope for survival unless they are able to immediately acquire the food and other resources they need before it is all gone. Anyone who tries to stand in their way, or who tries to reason with them, will have a life expectancy of less than three-seconds.

After the stores are all emptied, and there is nothing else to be stolen, the tempers of the individuals who were not successful in obtaining what they needed will turn violent. When that happens they will form into huge mobs without being asked to. And they will begin seeking vengeance on anyone or any establishment they have a grudge against. Banks, and government buildings, and courthouses will be burned to the ground. Anyone still inside those buildings will probably be shot or hanged. Then these mobs will start looking for the high-ranking officials that they believe are the source of their misery. But the vast majority of these high-ranking officials will have already disappeared to safe places unknown to anyone but themselves.

If you have not previously thought about the above, or if you are not intellectually prepared to deal with it, then the chances are not very good for your long-term survival.

If you have been waiting to buy a really critical item for your family's long-term self-sufficiency because you thought you could buy it at the very beginning of a slow gradual breakdown of society, then it will no longer be available. Your family will have to try to survive without that item, if that is possible. Since the vast majority of us have very limited financial resources it would be helpful if you could prioritize your purchases right now before it is too late. The following article on my web site describes how this could be done:

Realistic Self-Sufficiency: The Do's and the Don'ts.

If the meltdown begins while you are away from home then your highest priority should be to collect the other members of your family and return home. Do not be tempted to participate in the looting. Regardless of what you think you might need, it would be foolish to risk your life and the lives of your family members at any store or business that is being looted. You should consider yourself "blessed" if you are successful at making it safely home with all your loved ones.

In my opinion, after the meltdown begins it will take about 24-hours for the vast majority of the criminals and the looters to self-destruct to at least one-half of their original number. In fact, human greed will probably reduce their numbers by a lot more than 50%. The reason this will happen is because every criminal will want whatever the other criminal has in his or her possession and he or she will probably be willing to kill to get it. The criminals and looters that survive will be the more ruthless and savage members of our society and they will gradually form into small gangs for protection and for their own mutual survival. When that happens things will just continue to get worse.

If you live close to the outside edge of a heavily populated area, and you can quickly and easily get onto a good road or interstate leading away from the danger area, and if you have a safe destination already planned, and if travel to that destination does not take you through another heavily populated area, then it may be possible for you to escape to your "retreat" if you act immediately and you do not hesitate.

However, if you live inside a heavily populated area, or if you are a good distance from a safe exit road or interstate, or if you do not have a safe destination to travel to, then loading your family into your vehicle and trying to drive anywhere at this time would probably not be a very good idea. In this situation, when the meltdown begins your best chance for survival will probably be to wait out the worst part of the meltdown inside your home. You should also be prepared to defend your home and your family during this difficult transition period.

I fully realize that the above suggestion goes against almost everyone's recommended strategy of "getting out of Dodge" (G.O.O.D) at the last minute. You are an adult and you will need to make your own decision in this matter. But before you decide, perhaps you should thoughtfully consider your chances for long-term survival in each of the following two scenarios:

   1. Your family is trapped inside your vehicle in a traffic jam that is grid-locked and, although you don't know it yet, the cars in front of you and behind you are not going to move one-inch for the next several years. You and your family members quickly become physically and emotionally fatigued by the long wait inside your vehicle. Everyone needs to use the bathroom. Nobody can get any real rest. And as you watch one horror story after another unfold outside the windows of your vehicle you become terrified that you will not live to see another day. You are trapped inside your vehicle many, many miles from your home and travel in any direction by foot or by bicycle at this time would be suicidal.

   2. Your family is temporarily trapped inside your home with whatever resources you have in your home. You can still use the bathroom in the privacy of your own home. You can still eat and drink in safety. Each member of your family can sleep in his or her own bed while one or more members of your family remains awake and on guard duty. On some future date, after your family has eaten a good meal and everyone is completely rested and mentally and physically alert, then perhaps on a dark rainy night your family will be able to escape by riding bicycles or by walking out of the danger zone to some safe remote place where you already have supplies pre-positioned and waiting for you.

In my opinion, neither of the above two scenarios is a pleasant one to think about. But if I had to choose between them I would select the second option.

Three Questions
Please allow me to ask you the following three questions:

   1. How many people do you personally know who do not need to eat?
   2. Where does most of the meat, bread, fruit, and vegetables that are consumed by the people inside a city actually come from?
   3. If food deliveries into the city were stopped, how long would the city continue to be a safe place to live?

If you are satisfied with your answers to the above three questions and you still want to live in a big city then you should continue to do so. However, if you are not satisfied with your answers to the above three questions, then perhaps right now would be a good time to think about some other options for your family's survival.

Some Good News
Before you completely lose heart, please allow me to share some really good news with you. The meltdown hasn't started yet. You still have time to significantly improve your family's chances of surviving the upcoming meltdown.

Have you lost your job? That is good news. You can now relocate to a more lightly populated area.

Has the bank foreclosed on your home? That is good news. You can now relocate to a more lightly populated area.

Are you now living inside your vehicle? That is good news. If you can come up with some gas money then your can now relocate to a more lightly populated area.

You don't need to move to the unexplored wilderness in Alaska. You don't need to move into the heart of the Arizona desert. You just need to relocate to an area that is more lightly populated than a big city. The area you select should meet the following minimum criteria:

   1. It is not on a major freeway or interstate.
   2. It is at least several hundred feet above sea level.
   3. It is surrounded by farm land, dairy cows, and other typical farm livestock such as horses, pigs, sheep, goats, and chickens.
   4. It has a history of good average rainfall (not too much rain or too little rain).
   5. It has a reasonable supply of trees and forest timber land.
   6. It has a few nearby manufacturing facilities of any size.
   7. Its residents still have the right to own firearms to protect themselves.
   8. It has short mild winters.

You are smart. You could probably find a place like the above that is somewhere between 60 to 600 miles of where you currently live. When you get there, start looking for a new job.

At the current time good jobs are exceptionally difficult to find. Therefore, if you still have a really good job, then you would probably be better advised to keep your current job. But you could still move your loved ones to a small safe farming community that is at least 30 miles away from any heavily populated area, and which meets the first seven of the above eight minimum criteria. This would mean that you would have to commute one or two-hours each day to get to your current job. But your family would be safe when the meltdown begins. And if the meltdown occurs when you are at home with your family, then you would be there to help protect them. If the meltdown occurs while you are at work, and if you leave work immediately and don't stop anywhere, then there would be a reasonable chance that you might get back home before 24-hours has passed. This would require that you always have at least one-half tank of gas inside your vehicle's gas tank each day when you arrive at work. Finally, your survival would be greatly increased if you also had a little food and water, a few basic survival items, and a bicycle inside your vehicle that you could ride if you got caught in a grid-lock traffic jam. Most people will not abandon their vehicle immediately because they have an emotional attachment to their vehicle and to just abandon it would not "feel" like the most logical thing to do. The reason is because these people have survived traffic jams in the past by just waiting for them to eventually unravel. But this time it will be different. The traffic jam will never unravel. (Note: If it becomes necessary, park your vehicle on the side of the road and lock it, if that is possible.)

Conclusion
The vast majority of you will probably not share my opinion on this topic because it is just too "scary" and therefore it just can't happen. However, if you have taken the time to read this entire article then at least you now know about my "one-hour meltdown theory" and you can include it as one of your highly unlikely future scenarios. And if it should actually happen then at least you will not be too surprised by the events as they quickly begin to transpire.

On the other hand, if you think my "one-hour meltdown theory" is not all that ridiculous, then there are three things you could be doing right now to better prepare for the serious hard times ahead:

   1. If you have not already done so, then move to a lightly populated area.
   2. Pray often.
   3. Pray sincerely.

Postscript
In order to minimize the number of future emails about the above article, on July 29, 2009 I decided to add this postscript to my original article.

As I mentioned in the above introduction, nobody can predict the future, and that includes myself.

And as I mentioned in the above conclusion, the vast majority of you will probably not share my opinion on this topic.

Instead of a "bank holiday" almost any reasonably intelligent individual could easily select a different trigger event, or combination of trigger events, that lead to the inevitable meltdown.

And, instead of a "one-hour meltdown," almost anyone could modify one or more of the original assumptions and change the time frame to 24-hours, or three-days, or two-weeks, or nine-months, or seven-years.

However, since writing the above article seven-days ago, so far I have not received any emails from anyone who believes the meltdown will never happen. The only points of disagreement are on the trigger event and the speed at which the meltdown will unfold.

Individuals who do not believe a "one-hour meltdown" is possible generally believe that our government and financial leaders have some reasonable degree of control over the social and economic factors that are rapidly deteriorating worldwide.

And those individuals who believe the meltdown will be triggered by a different event, such as a terrorist attack (similar to the World Trade Center disaster) or a nuclear explosion in some large city, generally believe that someone or some nation must intentionally do something disastrous to initiate the meltdown.

Since I can't predict the future I have no valid way to respond to these differences of opinion. As far as I am concerned, everyone has a right to his or her own opinion, and that includes myself.

As I stated in my article, I simply believe that our leaders do not have things under control and that a worldwide bank run could happen unexpectedly at any time, and our leaders have no way to prevent it or to contain it once it begins. It could happen on any day of the week and at any time during the day. But once it starts our leaders will immediately declare a "bank holiday" to prevent catastrophic damage to the financial system and to the reputations of our financial leaders.

May I please use the following analogy. The current worldwide financial situation is like a passenger bus being driven by a bus driver whose future employment depends on keeping to the bus schedule and maintaining the bus passengers confidence in the bus company. The bus is currently being driven down a straight stretch of highway on a really cold rainy day. But the bus is gradually picking up speed, and the temperature is quickly dropping. The bus passengers can see that ice is starting to form in different spots, and that there are some really dangerous curves just ahead. The driver calmly reassures all the passengers that he or she currently has the bus completely under control and therefore nobody should worry because the future will not be any different from the past or the present. However, the smart people on the bus politely ask the driver to stop the bus and when the bus temporarily stops, they get off the bus and they tell the driver they will walk the rest of the way. The remainder of the passengers have no desire to walk in the freezing rain and therefore the calm words of the driver helps to reassure them and they stay inside the bus as it starts back down the icy highway. The bus quickly picks up speed and then it enters the first dead-man's curve on the edge of a 1,000-foot cliff. The entire curve is completely covered with two-inches of ice. In a matter of seconds the people still on the bus will be no more. The people who got off the bus will still be alive but their continued survival will depend on how prepared they are and whether or not they actually know how to survive in their current extremely difficult circumstances. If they are already wearing a waterproof winter coat and waterproof footwear and they have some matches and some food and water then there is a good chance they will live to see another day.

May I now please interpret my own analogy. The bus is our current worldwide economy. The bus driver represents our current government and financial leaders. The ice represents the fiat money that is currently being increased at an ever accelerating rate. The dead-man's curve is a "bank holiday." The people still on the bus are the ones who believe that our leaders have a lot more control over our worldwide economy than they really do, and they are leaving most of their money inside the financial system, and they are continuing to live inside a big city. The people who got off the bus are the ones who live in a more lightly populated area and they are using whatever money they currently have to purchase the things they know they will desperately need in the future.

The above article is completely theoretical. The only reason I wrote the article is to provide you with a possible future scenario that you may not have considered too seriously in the past. However, it is my personal conviction that there is an extremely high probability that our future will be forever changed by a simple unexpected "bank holiday" that results in a "one-hour meltdown" of civilization as we currently know it. And, as I mentioned in the conclusion to my original article, I already know that most of you will not share this opinion with me. And that is perfectly okay with me and I am not in the least bit offended.

Respectfully,
Grandpappy.

- - - - - - -

August 12, 2009 - Postscript Number 2:
Added the following link to a report that is directly related to the above article:
An Event at my Grocery Store (August 10, 2009)


Revision History:

Revised August 12, 2009 - Added Second Postscript - A link to "An Event at my Grocery Store" at end of article.

Revised July 29, 2009 - Added First Postscript at the end of the article.

July 22, 2009 - Created this new web page.

Click on www.grandpappy.info/indexeco.htm for more Economy and Politics Articles.

Click on www.grandpappy.info for Robert's Home Page.

Send e-mail to RobertWayneAtkins@grandpappy.info

[Lloyd Danforth]

The average person in every nation on the face of the earth knows the meltdown is coming

No they don't!

[Russell Kanning]

I can see the 1 hour meltdown happening in their system.
I don't see average people looting the stores. Most people will be more helpful to their neighbors like in other disasters. Some will loot like in LA riots. Others will seek help from the government and get katrina treatment.

why do i recognize the name of the 1st author.

[Pat K]

Do You Know About Tyler Durden?

[littlehawk]

Yes, I agree with old Lloyd as most of the sheeple think all is fine and dandy. Continue to watch the situation in Egypt unfold as it will be the same here.  The hungry and desperate sheeple will welcome "tanks in the streets"...but quickly find it will be their worst nightmare. Welcome To The Reservation. 

Welcome to the Res, by Russell Means:
Russell Means: Welcome To The Reservation

[Russell Kanning]

am i missing something?
are hungry people welcoming tanks in the streets?
i am thinking loads of people taking their frustrations against the system to the streets is good news

[littlehawk]

Yes, my post was misleading.

I meant that when people can not get food they will have no choice but to accept food from the gov. (thus welcoming "tanks in the streets". I can see this happening here in the US in big cities.

But to clarify, I think what the Egyptian folks are doing right now in "taking it to the streets" is awesome. I recently heard today that US troops are being deployed to Egypt. If it  is true, this is not good.

[Russell Kanning]

can you imagine being a US soldier being sent to  Cairo .... what on earth do you do there with your gun and hand granades?