Silver

[Pat McCotter]

SILVER ETF & BOLIVIA CONFISCATION

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

As of the close of business on Friday 4-28-06, the Barclays iShares Silver Trust ETF (Trading symbol: SLV) had nearly 21 million ounces of silver, up from 1.5 million ounces of silver when it started trading Friday morning.   The Silver ETF (SLV) continues to be priced slightly higher than silver bullion spot prices; at present the ETF is at about $14.27/oz., (minus half of 1% annual fees and other expenses), while silver is at $14.18/oz.  This spread, driven by market created demand for the ETF, creates the arbitrage incentive for the Silver ETF market makers to buy physical silver, in lots of about 500,000 oz. for 50,000 ETF shares, for the trust.  Twenty million ounces is a shocking increase in the amount of silver purchased in a single day, and at this rate, the Trust could obtain about 100 million ounces of silver by Friday this week, and by next week, we might see a default on delivery of silver via NYMEX futures contracts!  Silver moved up over $1/oz. on Friday, up again about $.50/oz. on Monday and up another $.20/oz. Tuesday.

iShares Silver Trust
http://www.ishares.com/fund_info/detail.jhtml?symbol=SLV

Frequently Asked Questions about the Silver ETF
http://www.ishares.com/material_download.jhtml?relativePath=/repository/material/downloads/silver_faq.pdf

I do not personally recommend that small, individual investors buy the Silver ETF.  I personally believe it is safer to own your own physical silver bullion, which you should own in case of brokerage house default, or if the markets simply stop trading for a year due to war or market meltdown.  I believe the ETF is primarily for large institutional investors, who simply cannot personally move very large quantities of silver bullion that they would like to buy for investment purposes.   If the price of silver stabilizes in about a month (or if market defaults on futures contracts do not take place), the Silver ETF may also be useful for large trading accounts such as IRA accounts, where it may be useful to trade into silver, instead of cash, to hold while deciding what other silver stocks to buy.

See my Brief Guide to Buying Silver:
What kind of silver, and where to get it.
http://www.silverstockreport.com/buybullion.htm

----------------------

Bolivia Confiscation


In an ominous move for silver investors who own mining companies with properties in Bolivia, Bolivia nationalized (confiscated) their gas industry, on May 1st.  If Bolivia does not care about property rights of natural resource investors, then silver properties are also at risk of nationalization, confiscation, or a "special tax", or some combination.

Apex, Coeur d'Alene stocks drop on Bolivia worries
http://tinyurl.com/jmhgx


NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - Stock in two silver mining companies plummeted on Tuesday amid concern that mineral-rich Bolivia would extend its nationalization from oil and gas to other natural resources.

The fears were eased somewhat when Bolivian Vice President Alvaro Garcia later ruled out mine seizures, but he said big foreign mining companies must still pay higher taxes.

"There are not going to be company expropriations, of course, but we're going to assume a greater level of state control," Garcia said on La Paz radio, one day after President Evo Morales announced nationalization of the energy sector.


Companies at risk (in my opinion, from most to least) include:

1.  Apex Silver http://www.apexsilver.com/ --whose flagship property is San Cristobol in Bolivia.  Apex Silver's stock plunged on the news, from $21.20/share to $13.50/share, and bounced back to $18/share after a statement by the company that no mining confiscation is anticipated.  Nevertheless, why trust a known thief?  Not only is Bolivia suspect, but so is Apex Silver in my opinion, which recently hedged part of its production to secure a bank loan of over $100 million.  Losses on the hedges of unproduced minerals may already exceed the value of the bank loan! 

2.  Apogee Minerals http://www.apogeeminerals.com/ --has a primariy portfolio of exploration properties in Bolivia.

3.  Coeur d'Alene Mines http://www.coeur.com/ --has one of it's most advanced development projects, San Bartolome, in Bolivia.  "Leading Coeur's new growth in silver is San Bartolome, the largest new primary silver mine to be built in the Americas in decades. With construction underway, this major Bolivian silver mine is scheduled for annualized production of more than 8 million ounces of silver."  Coeur has insurance against 85% of a loss through political expropriation.

4.  Pan American Silver http://www.panamericansilver.com/ --one of three key development projects, the San Vicente Mine, is in Bolivia.

Potential beneficiaries of a potential Bolivian confiscation or nationalization of silver mines would likely be silver itself.  After nationalization, foreign investment typically halts; which tends to prevent development of mines that may cost hundreds of millions of dollars to bring to production.  With lower production of silver, or even the expectation of less silver production, higher silver prices would likely result.

Other potential beneficiaries are companies exploring in North America.

----------------------
Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" investment series, continues to write positive things about silver.

Five Factors for Favoring Silver
by Robert Kiyosaki
Tuesday, May 2, 2006
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/4027

He even mentions the Silver ETF as a positive development for higher silver prices. 

He does not mention the short position at NYMEX, which recently had an open interest of 200,000 contracts, representing 1 billion ounces of silver promised to be delivered, which is nearly 1.5 years worth of annual mine production, which is a larger position than in any other commodity, while the exchange has less than 100 million ounces registered for delivery. 

The Silver ETF, which is acquiring allocated physical silver, may soon bring the paper silver trading games to an abrupt end. 

----------------------
I do not own any of the silver stocks mentioned in this report, nor do I own the Silver ETF (SLV); but I do own physical silver bullion and I own stocks in about 18 silver exploration companies.

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[Pat McCotter]

As Bolivia Nationalizes Oil & Gas, is Mining Next?
By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '03-MAY-06 05:00' GMT ? Mineweb 1997-2004

RENO--(Mineweb.com) As troops occupied Bolivia's natural gas and oil fields Monday on the orders of a presidential decree of nationalization, Bolivian President Evo Morales vowed that "this is just the start ...tomorrow or the day after it will be mining, then the forestry sector, and eventually all of the natural resources for which our ancestors fought."

In a May Day announcement, Morales declared all hydrocarbons in Bolivia were nationalized. Foreign companies have six months to grant Bolivia 51% control of their national gas operations, renegotiate contracts, or leave the country.

Morales ordered the military to occupy energy fields throughout the country Monday as he announced the nationalization as an end to "the pillage of our natural resources by foreign companies." Bolivia has an estimated 54 trillion cubic feet of proven and probable gas reserves valued at $70 billion.

Brazil's Petrobas, which controls more than 45% of Bolivia's gas fields, Spain's Repsol YPF (which controls 25.7% of Bolivian gas production), France's Total, and British firm BG Group are the largest investors in the Bolivian natural gas sector.

Brazil's Energy Minister Silas Rondeau told a television network that Brazil considered Morales' decree an "unfriendly action" from an individual who was supposed to be a loyal ally. Brazilian officials had long negotiated with Bolivian authorities to protect $1.5 billion in investments by Petrobas in Bolivia. In a statement published on its website, Petrobas said it was analyzing the Bolivian government's action "in order to adopt the suitable measures, on all levels, to guarantee the gas supply to the Brazilian market and preserve the company's rights."

However, Bolivia's Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera declared on Bolivian television Tuesday that oil and gas fields were still operating normally, but under the direction of the government. During the 180-day transition period, 82% of their profits will go to the Bolivian government and 18% to the corporations.

Linera said the decree was necessary to help state-owned Yacimentos Petroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) make a profit as the majority shareholder in the newly revised operations. However, the chief spokesman of European Commission said Tuesday that the EU had hoped "there would be a process of discussion and consultation before it adopted such measures."

Meanwhile, the Bolivian Vice President also explained that his country would assume greater control of the mining sector, but wouldn't resort to expropriations. He insisted that big foreign mining companies must pay more taxes in Bolivia.

The Times of London declared that while "some Bolivians may cheer this petulant display of nationalism; most will find that all Senor Morales has done is to anger his neighbours, undermine foreign confidence, cripple a vital industry and set back Bolivia's development by 10 years or so. ...Other left-wing Latin American leaders have also felt the pressure to spread national income more evenly; few have been as reckless."

"Even Hugo Chavez, the egotistic Venezuelan leader whom President Morales sees as a role model, has trodden with great skill," the Times proclaimed.

Investor's Business Daily called Chavez, Morales and Cuba's Fidel Castro the "Axis of Idiocy. ...For Castro, Chavez, Morales & Co., it's pretty clear oil is only the start. By working together to disrupt struggling democracies in the region, they will bring back socialism in a big way--creating, potentially, a new national security nightmare for the U.S."

Meanwhile, several news media stories claim there are already more than 5,000 Cuban and Venezuelan advisors in Bolivia.

However, Peruvian Presidential Candidate Ollanta Humala, who previously vowed to force foreign mining and gas companies to renegotiate contracts, declared "we respect the sovereign decisions of our brother nation Bolivia. But what I what to say emphatically is this: We never talked about either state takeovers or expropriation."

POSSIBLE MINING IMPACTS


U.S. mining companies with substantial investments in Bolivia were quick to try to minimize the potential damage to their stock Tuesday. In a news release, Denver-based Apex Silver insisted "the company is not aware of any plan by the government of Bolivia to follow a similar policy in mining."

"Apex Silver was particularly encouraged by recent statements made by the Bolivian Minister of Mines and Metallurgy in which he emphasized that the mining policy does not contemplate nationalization and even less incorporation of private companies such as San Cristobal.'" However, Apex--whose future relies heavily on its flagship $600 million San Cristobal silver, zinc, and lead project in southwestern Bolivia--had not returned Mineweb's request for comment by deadline Tuesday. Wholly owned by Apex Silver, San Cristobal is believed to contain proven and probable reserves of 470 million ounces of silver, 8 billion pounds of zinc and 3 billion pounds of lead. Mineweb was unable to determine if the project carries political risk insurance. Apex Silver (SIL) stock ended Tuesday at $17.70 per share on the AMEX, dropped $3.30.

In a news release issued Tuesday, Idaho-based Coeur d'Alene Mines noted that the Bolivian national mining company, Corporacion Minera Bolivia (Comibol) is the "underlying owner of all of the mineral rights relating to the San Bartolome project (with the exception of the Thuru property, which is owned by the Cooperative Reserva Fiscal, a local miners' cooperative. In essence, Comibol already owns virtually all of the mining rights for the associated land package at Coeur's San Bartolome project."

While Coeur has invested $35 million thus far in the San Bartolome project, the company has OPIC political risk insurance for $155 million, which covers 85% of any loss pertaining to expropriation, political violence, or forex problems. Coeur has stated that the project has total proven and probable reserves of more than 150 million ounces of silver with an anticipated silver production of 8 million ounces annually. Coeur stock (CDE) closed down to $6.35 on the NYSE Tuesday, a drop of 8.28%.

The Center on Global Prosperity at the Independent Institute in Oakland, California, noted Tuesday that Morales has stopped the tender process for the development of Mutun, a large iron ore reserve in the separatist region of Santa Cruz. The strongly business oriented region favors globalization. However, the Bolivian government said it is considering a joint venture with a Venezuelan government company to develop the iron ore body.

The center's director Alvaro Vargas Llosa also reported that Morales has announced his government will take control of the energy prices and the export volumes of foreign companies.

MIXED OUTLOOK


U.S. foreign policy analysts tried to assure the news media Tuesday that Bolivia's nationalization move is not as dire as it may appear. A spokesman for the U.S. State Department told Mineweb Tuesday that Morales' Presidential decree is still being analyzed by its experts, mainly to determine its potential effect on the atmosphere for private investment in Bolivia. The U.S. Embassy in La Paz had not replied to Mineweb's request for comment by deadline Tuesday night.

Ecuador, Argentina and Venezuela have all taken actions these past few years to diminish the power of the United States and foreign institutions in their respective nations. The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, noted that "Bolivia's new government took office in January with a strong mandate for reform--to increase economic growth and alleviate poverty."

"The need for new economic policies can be seen from the severe economic failure over the last quarter-century," declared CEPR Co-Director Mark Weisbrot. "Bolivia is also the poorest country in South America, with a per capita income of $2,800, as compared to an average of $8,200 for Latin America and $42,000 for the United States. About 64% of the population lives below the poverty line." In the meantime, the International Monetary Fund is losing its influence in middle-income developing nations. Meanwhile, the United States doesn't have much direct leverage in a number of Latin American nations.

Venezuela has been lending money to Argentina and has bought government bonds from Ecuador. Therefore, Weisbrot believes Bolivia could have access to other sources of foreign financing. Basically, he declared, Latin American nations, such as Bolivia, are "trying to find a way to make capitalism work" for them.

Weisbort also noted that Bolivia need more funds to provide clean water for all Bolivians. Meanwhile, contracts which had been granted by prior Bolivian governments to foreign companies, were supposed to be ratified by Congress. Apparently, this was not the case in several situations. However, Morales did violate Bolivia's foreign investment laws, according to an analyst for IDEAglobal, the parent company of the U.S. equity research firm StreetAdvisor.com.

The IDEAglobal analyst told PBS Tuesday that Morales' actions do not constitute "a classic nationalization" or expropriation of assets because foreign companies have been given a period of time to renegotiate their contracts with the Bolivian government. He suggested Morales is trying to ensure that foreign companies will not make "super profits" from Bolivia's natural resources. He noted that Venezuela, Ecuador, and Argentina have successfully reasserted their national control of natural resources in their respective nations.

[Russell Kanning]

In other news D'aconia Silver had a large explosion at the mine.

[Pat McCotter]

 

[KBCraig]

In other news D'aconia Silver had a large explosion at the mine.

Good reference. 

I belong to a railfan mailing list devoted to the Kansas City Southern RR. I'm not a railfan, but my father and his father were both career KCS men, and I spent two summers on a section gang. I subscribe because I sometimes hear from men who were good friends with my father.

KCS is no longer a quaint little regional railroad; they've expanded east and west, and they're known as "The NAFTA Railroad". KCS Industries includes KCS, KCS de Mexico, and Panama Canal Railway Company. I hope they're aware of the risk they're taking by buying Transportaci?n Ferroviaria Mexicana (Mexican Rail Transportation).

"Never engage in land warfare in Asia" is good advice. So is "Never (mistakenly believe you can actually) buy physical assets in Latin America."

Kevin

[Pat McCotter]

HOW APEX SILVER SWINDLED INVESTORS AND BOLIVIA THROUGH HEDGING.

Thursday, May 04, 2006

About 6 months ago, Apex silver borrowed $225 million dollars, and did the minimum required hedging of silver, zinc, and lead, to secure the loan.  In those 6 months, silver and zinc prices have about doubled, and the mark-to-market losses are, I estimate, over $715 million dollars!

A loss that big, over 6 months, is like a loan at 900% annual interest, or more!  http://www.smartmoney.com/compoundcalc/  But the terms of the interest rate were hidden, buried in commodity prices.

This shows why companies cannot hedge in bull market, when inflationary forces are accelerating!  You can't lock in dollar prices you will receive, when dollar prices are increasing wildly! 

Investors, make sure you don't own any stocks that are hedged.  There is no such thing as "responsible hedging".

The market cap of Apex silver, at $900 million, is barely larger than their loss. 

Furthermore, since Bolivia has stated that they intend to lay a heavy tax on the mines in Bolivia, the future looks very bad for Apex silver. 

Bolivia says to assume greater control of mining
http://tinyurl.com/gya96


LA PAZ, Bolivia, May 2 (Reuters) - A day after Bolivia's president said the nationalization of the energy sector was "just the start," the country's vice president said on Tuesday the state wanted more control of the mining industry.

Vice president Alvaro Garcia said big mining companies must pay higher taxes and said the government would have a larger role in the industry, but he seemed to rule out a nationalization similar to that in the energy sphere.


Bolivia plans to take over mines, forests as next move
http://denverpost.com/latin/ci_3777550


La Paz, Bolivia - Bolivia's leftist government said Tuesday that it would extend control over mining, logging and other sectors of the economy after President Evo Morales nationalized the country's huge natural- gas industry.


And yet, how can Bolivia levy a heavy tax on Apex, if Apex silver will show such a huge loss for years to come, as the hedges have a term of up to 7 years?  Looks like the government of Bolivia will soon get an education on hedges, to explain the shortfall of tax revenue.  If I was to advise Bolivia on what to do, I would tell Bolivia to force Apex to do what I advised Apex silver to do:  offer to pay workers, who want it, silver.  Such a plan on how to do that while paper money is in use is available here, in my Silver Coin Proposal:  http://www.silverstockreport.com/silvercoinproposal.htm

The Mining companies in Bolivia seem to be withholding information from investors, and are not telling the full story, as the miners emphasize that there are no plans for "nationalization" of the mines, or that they do not know of any such plans.  Similarly, the mining companies are not telling the whole, updated story with regard to the mark-to-market losses on their hedges.

Apex sure has a hard road ahead, because they tried to take the easy road to riches, by trying to borrow their way to wealth.

Here is how I arrived at my estimate of Apex's hedging loss.

http://www.apexsilver.com
see "Investor Relations"
see "shareholder information"
then "press releases"

Nov. 14th press release:
Apex Silver Reports Third Quarter 2005 Results, Progress on San Cristobal and the $225-million Bank Financing Facility
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=113158&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=782256&highlight=


In the third quarter 2005, Apex Silver recorded a $9.6-million mark-to-market non-cash trading loss, primarily tied to the newly-established hedge positions required in connection with the $225-million bank financing to develop its 100%-owned San Cristobal open-pit silver-zinc-lead project located in southwestern Bolivia. All hedge positions required for the bank loan have been established. They include a combination of forward sales and a variety of call options (struck at different prices) covering approximately 10.4 million ounces of silver, 358,150 tonnes of zinc and 159,000 tonnes of lead over a seven-year period (the mine is projected to have a 16-year life based on existing proven and probable reserves and throughputs). These hedge positions represent about 3.5%, 12.6% and 14.7% of planned life-of-mine payable production of silver, zinc and lead, respectively.


Apex had a 3rd Q, 2005, $9.6 million, mark-to-market loss on hedges of:
10.4 million ounces of silver,
358,150 tonnes of zinc
159,000 tonnes of lead

Assuming prices at Oct. 1, 2005 for the hedges (which is generous, as they were already underwater by then):

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical.html
About $.70/lb zinc in October 2005.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/lead_historical.html
About $.45/lb lead in October 2005
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
About $7.90/oz. silver in October 2005

Value of Apex's hedged metals on Oct. 1, 2005:
10.4 million ounces of silver @ $7.90 = $82 million
358,150 tonnes of zinc x 2204lbs./tonne @ $.70/lb. = $553,000,000
159,000 tonnes of lead x 2204lbs./tonne @ $.45/lb. = $158,000,000

Whoever loaned Apex silver $225 million, sure got a lot more dollars worth of commodities, promised to be delivered, than they paid for.  And since the time of this hedge, commodity prices for silver and started really taking off, moving up almost parabolic!  Whoever made the loan, sure knew something about commodities that Apex silver did not!

Here are the dollar values of Apex's hedged commodities today!

10.4 million ounces of silver @ $13.69 = $142 million
358,150 tonnes of zinc x 2204lbs./tonne @ $1.50/lb. = $1,180,000,000
159,000 tonnes of lead x 2204lbs./tonne @ $.53/lb. = $186,000,000

Today, these hedges are underwater, and have a mark-to-market loss of about:

silver: $60 million
zinc: $627 million
lead: $28 million

For a total loss of about $715 million.

How did Apex justify such stupidity, at the time?


"Our strategy was two-fold," said Mark A. Lettes, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Apex Silver. "First, to hedge the minimum amount of metal necessary to secure bank financing, and second, to maximize shareholder-value upside potential relative to the price of silver. Both objectives have been met as the company remains well exposed to potentially escalating prices of zinc, lead and especially silver. At the same time, our lenders have been provided with the requisite downside protection."


Clearly, hedging the "minimum necessary" did not work.  Clearly, it did NOT maximize shareholder value!

Apex was warned.

In 2003, at a San Francisco mining show, I spoke with Igor Levental, Vice President Investor Relations and Corporate Development of Apex Silver, and I strongly urged him, that since Apex silver had millions of dollars in cash, and was, at the time, waiting for higher silver prices before going into production, that he might as well buy silver while waiting for higher silver prices.  I went over the bullish case for silver with him.  He dismissed the idea out of hand.  Again, about 6 months later, I spoke with Igor again at a mining show in New York, face to face, and again, without any justification or rational thought, he ignored me.

Igor thought that buying silver, while waiting for higher silver prices, was a foolish idea.  The company ended up doing the exact opposite, and hedged silver, sold silver, at just under $8/oz.!  Who knew the near term producer would be so foolish?  I gave them the benefit of the doubt back in 2003 when I wrote:

Miners to Use Silver as Cash - 27 November 2003
http://www.silverstockreport.com/essays/Miners_to_Use_Silver_as_Cash.html

Apex sure seems like a large company, at $900 million, with their 8 billion pounds of zinc in the ground, averaging a grade of under 1%. 

But tiny market cap Metalline Mining (MMGG.OB), another soon to be producer, is unhedged, and has 5 billion pounds of zinc resources, at grades above 10% zinc per tonne!  Metalline Mining, in Mexico, at 50 million shares outstanding, at $2.50/share, has a market cap of $125 million. (The market cap listed at Yahoo! Finance does not take into account the recent financing.) 

Since zinc prices have exploded to $1.54/lb., Metalline Mining's projection of 400 million pounds of zinc production per year, at a cost of $.25/lb., is a projected profit of $520 million per year, (after financing of about $250 million).  Metalline is currently working on a feasibility study, but I think 10% zinc is going to be quite feasible!

Metalline also has very high grade silver, as follows:

"The Sierra Mojada Property has produced in excess of 10 million tons of high-grade ore that graded in excess of 30% lead, 20% zinc, 1% copper and 1 kg (31 ounces) silver per ton that was shipped directly to the smelter. The district has never had a mill to concentrate ore. All of the mining was done selectively for ore of sufficient grade to direct ship; mill grade ore was left unmined."
(That's 310 million ounces of silver.  Who knows how much silver is left?)  That's the question with an explorer, like Metalline.

For more information on Metalline Mining:
See my report on Jan 28th: 
MMGG: Here?s why you will make a fortune on zinc.
http://www.silverstockreport.com/email/MMGG_fortune.html

Disclaimer:  I own shares of Metalline Mining, and Metalline mining has not paid me to send out this report.  I do not own shares of Apex Silver, although, at one time, back in 2002, I did own Apex, when I did not know of any better silver opportunities.  But through my reports, my readers tend to inform me of what they think are better opportunities, such as Metalline Mining, and I try very hard to listen to what people have to tell me, unlike Apex Silver.

Additional disclaimer:  I acquired positions in Metalline Mining in two private placements (PP) and in the open market.  First, I bought in the PP at $1/share over two years ago, second at about $1.20 a few months ago in the open market, and third, at $.80 in the PP a few months ago.  Further, I sold about 5% of my position in Metalline Mining today, to diversify, and to raise money to put into potentially riskier, lower market cap, potentially better stock opportunities.  And I will NOT sell any Metalline Mining for at least the next week.

[Russell Kanning]

Maybe Igor is the one who owns the future incoming metals and robbed the company before the government takeover.

[DC]

Looks like Warren Buffett allready sold his silver. He sold it to early too.

?I bought it very early, I sold it very early. Other than that it was perfect,? he joked

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=19497

[Tunga]

To anyone that thinks Buffet has unloaded all his silver; theres this bridge in Brooklyn see....

[Tunga]

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

[Tunga]

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Are you a regular reader of urbansurvival.com? Have you followed the work of "Cliff" who is featured there? That's fascinating work Cliff does with his webbots...

Yes it is cool.
The NSA was doing experiments with "time reversed light" 20 years ago. We have to wonder if maybe Cliff spun off a piece of this work for his own uses.

Today is tomorrows past. Echos from these words reverberate into the future. Webbots hear them and share with us.
Halfpasthuman.com



"I built a time machine..."Guster -  One man wreckin' machine from "Ganging up on the Sun"

[Tunga]

When his radio show was still on the air, Alex Merklinger used to interview Cliff periodically. Did you ever happen to listen? I found these shows to be really interesting. I wish Alex would get back on the air but he's got famly problems with his daughter on her deathbed.

No. Tunga happened upon Urbansurvival only last year via a link provided by Rense.com or maybe Prision planet?

[Michael Fisher]

The dollar is continuing its plummet. It's down another 9% this year. The market is in a huge bubble, IMO, and needs to lose a few thousand, pronto.

All five overseas mutual funds I've been watching have gone up 12-17%+ in only the past four months:

China:
FHKCX (up 14.02%)
TCWAX (up 17.19%)

Latin America:
FLATX (up 14.21%)

Southeast Asia Ex-Japan:
FSEAX (up 16.94%)

BRIC: (Brazil, Russia, India, China)
GBRAX (up 13.92%)

[Michael Fisher]

At least half of the gain of those mutual funds was caused by the falling US dollar.

Plus, all Americans just lost another 9% of their savings this year and do not even know it.

[teknari]

Silver and Gold are bad long term investments.  I would recommend having some in these hard assets in case things go bad, however you are better off in stocks long term.  Even some bonds would be better.