Porcupine Raffle to benefit LSFund.org

[Russell Kanning]

Our operators are standing by .... don't make us break into the regularly scheduled program for a telethon.

This will be fun. If you want your participation anonymous .... just let me know. But for most people it will be fun to have the names and numbers up for all to see.

[Russell Kanning]

Lloyd Danforth
Porcupine Raffle Ticket #1

2,3 - Brian Sullivan

[Russell Kanning]

Lloyd Danforth
Porcupine Raffle Ticket #1

2,3 - Brian Sullivan
4 - Pat McCotter
5,6 - Mike Fisher

[Michael Fisher]

Woohoo, I have a 30% chance of winning! 

[Pat McCotter]

No, you have a 2% chance. The drawing is not being held until all tickets are sold. Which means we have to start getting the word out so we Russell gets them all sold!

[KBCraig]

No, you have a 2% chance.

Ummmm.... no, each ticket has a 1/n chance in winning (and n=100 in this example). Each subsequent ticket also has a 1/n chance in winning, but the total odds for each player are 1/n-y, where y=tickets bought. So for someone buying two tickets, there's a 1 in 98 chance of winning, or 1.02%

(Or would that be 1/n-(y+1)? Maybe someone like an accountant can help here.  )

I really suck at math and statistics and probability, but I understand that no matter what the odds are of a flipped coin coming up heads a zillion times in a row, on flip number zillion+1, the odds are still 50/50 that I'll get heads.

Kevin

[Russell Kanning]

Accountants can only +-x/

[KBCraig]

Accountants can only +-x/

Ah, my mistake. My sample pool is undoubtedly biased by the gal I dated for two years in college. She finished in four straight years with a math major, computer science minor, and education certificate, with a 3.96 GPA (she cried for days over the one "B" she received).  Within one year, she had her M.Ed, CPA, and actuarial ticket; the last I heard, she was teaching middle school math. 

Kevin

[Lloyd Danforth]

So, Kevin, have you sent your check to Russell, yet?

[Russell Kanning]

If I was to stop now .... Mike would have a 2 in 6 chance of the small prize. When it actually happens, Mike will probably have a 2 in 100 chance for the big prize.

[Michael Fisher]

If I was to stop now .... Mike would have a 2 in 6 chance of the small prize. When it actually happens, Mike will probably have a 2 in 100 chance for the big prize.

As far as you know...   

I can always buy more tickets!

[Lloyd Danforth]

Kat and Russell think they should not participate because they are running it, but, I think they should some Damn tickets like some of the rest of us!  We can find a non-invested Porc to pick a number.  Doesn't look like it will be hard to find one.

[KBCraig]

I can always buy more tickets!

If you buy all of them, you'll have a 100% chance of winning back half your money! 

[Russell Kanning]

Kat and Russell think they should not participate because they are running it, but, I think they should some Damn tickets like some of the rest of us! We can find a non-invested Porc to pick a number. Doesn't look like it will be hard to find one.

I have never said that. I don't have any money to give the LSFund. I thought this would be fun and I could run it with no expenses.

[Russell Kanning]

Lloyd Danforth
Porcupine Raffle Ticket #1

2,3 - Brian Sullivan
4 - Pat McCotter
5,6 - Mike Fisher

9 - Jon Bender
33 - Chris Lopez and "he who must not be named"